Friday, October 31, 2008

Big XII Picks: Week 5

Duty calls, so I’ll keep this one pretty short and sweet. To be honest, I’m really only interested in two of the games anyway, as I’m sure is the case with most everyone outside of Austin and Lubbock, who are only interested in one. Either way, here are the picks. After a horrendous Saturday last week, my numbers fell quite a bit, taking me to 18-6 TGS and 12-12 ATS. Trust me at your own peril.

Game of the Week

Texas (-3.5) @ Texas Tech: I keep wavering on this pick. For the first month plus of the season I assumed the Red Raiders would take this one. And in the meantime, they’ve only impressed me more. However, I just haven’t seen anything from Texas yet to make me pick against them. Which is weird in this “everybody loses at some point” era of college football, especially because they’re by no means invisible and definitely look to be suffering from some tired legs lately. Maybe it’s just out of spite, but I’m sticking with the Horns. Texas 41 Tech 37

Nebraska (+22) @ Oklahoma: Given the recent struggles – to put it lightly – of the Sooner defense, I think this line seems pretty high. Factor in the exceptional ball control offense Nebraska has developed and it really seems high. I’ll be really surprised if the Huskers can pull the upset, but I think they can keep it within three touchdowns. Oklahoma 38 Nebraska 27

Iowa State @ Oklahoma State (-30.5): I can’t say I love giving 31 points, but at this point, how can you not? ISU seems to have completely checked out ever since KU’s comeback. Meanwhile, hard as it is to believe, OSU looks like a legitimate top ten team. I always recommend staying away from spreads like this, if for no other reason than the unpredictability that comes from mop up duty, but gun to my head I’ll go with the Pokes. OSU 45 ISU 10

Colorado @ Texas A&M (-3.5): I had every intention of going with the Buffs here, but the Ags seem to have developed a competent offense. Not so much up in Colorado. And while they definitely have the advantage on D, it’s a lot easier to trust the team at home here. A&M 27 CU 20

Methzou (-20.5) @ Baylor: Robert Griffin may test the Tiger secondary, but no team scoring 20 points a game can be expected to hang with Methzou. Especially when that team is Baylor. MU 45 Baylor 17

KSU @ Kansas (-10.5): The game for the Governor’s Cup has taken on somewhat of a pillow fight mentality this year as neither defense has done much of anything lately. For perspective, the decidedly better of the two defenses has given up 108 points over the last two weeks. I’m not sure one word would adequately describe just how bad that is, but pathetic comes to mind. Among other things, the biggest advantage Kansas has in this one is on the ground. By no means do they need to grind out the game and run out of the I on a regular basis, but if they can pick up 5-6 a pop, they have no good excuse not to do so and thus: burn some clock, rest their defense, move the chains and open things up even more for Todd, Kerry and Dez. This should be the blueprint every week. But it really should be this week. Because if it’s not, we could see our first combined100 point game in the league this year. Call me crazy, but I’m going to trust the KU coaches to do the right thing. Kansas 38 KSU 24