Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Time to Defend that National Championship

We'll return to our regularly scheduled football programming shortly. But crazy as it seems, the exhibitions are over and the regular season gets going this weekend. And after all, we can't just ignore the 2008 National Champion Kansas Jayhawks, despite the fact that it's almost an entirely different team altogether. Details. After two exhibition games we know pretty much exactly what we did after the NBA Draft – this is going to be a different kind of year. No national championships this time around. But we won’t be having a Florida type drop-off either. Or so I hope. The talent is there, but plan on a whole lot of frustration. With any luck it will begin to subside by January. But even if that’s the case (no guarantees), it certainly won’t be gone for good. But strap in, because it’s going to be a damn fun year as well.

As you know, exactly one big contributor from last year’s champion returns in Sherron Collins. Sherron is as good a guard as there is in the country. He plays tough, opportunistic defense. He’s a one man fast break. He can hit the pull up jumper or the triple. And he can get to the rim as well as anyone. Suffice it to say, Sherron will be carrying the torch this year. As he goes, so go the Jayhawks.

The other returner the Hawks can count on is Cole Aldrich. I don’t include him in Sherron’s category, because he averaged all of about 8 mins, 3 points and 3 boards a game. And then he dominated the consensus player of the year in the Final Four. So the bar has been set. Now all we need is for him to play that way thirty plus times as the focal point of our inside game. And by focal point, I mean the only returning player with any chance of contributing in the paint. It may be too much to ask, but I think we’re going to need something around 15 & 10 out of Cole. I think he’s plenty capable, but we’ll have to see.

As for the other returners, it’s a little early to tell what kind of role they’ll play. I’d expect to see a little more of Brady Morningstar than you might have imagined, at least in the early going. And he can score it a bit, but he’s still not defending like he should. This is probably also true of Conner Teahan, but to a lesser extent. Rounding out the Caucasian triumvirate is Tyrel Reed. Get used to hearing his name, because he’s going to start for a while. Like the other two, he still doesn’t play defense like he should, but it will be a while (if ever) before he loses his job. Not only is he a plenty capable ballhandler, but more than anything, he gives us an outside shooter. These three will all have significant roles, but if this team is going to achieve what it wants to, their roles will need to be reduced at some point though I'd never expect Reed to dip below 20 minutes.

As for the newbies, we’ve got a lot of them. The JUCO transfers are Mario Little (player of the year) and Tyrone Appleton. Both have plenty of ability to contribute and will be expected to. Unfortunately, Little has been hurt and Appleton has had a bit more trouble adapting than expected. Long story short, the jury’s still out here. But injuries aside, I’d expect to be pretty familiar with Mario Little before too long. And we’ll definitely hear from Appleton, but it’s probably a little early to tell how much.

The freshman consist of: local flavor Travis Releford, Philly twins Marcus & Markieff Morris, Quintrell Thomas, & Tyshawn Taylor. All five will be expected to play and play well. The twins probably have the most pure talent, but they’re also probably the worst defenders and the least intelligent guys on the team. Quintrell seems to be in the mold of a young Darnell Jackson with a little more natural ability. Tyshawn has the potential to be an incredible point guard and huge disruption on defense with his quickness and long arms, but he needs to shake his habit of throwing the ball to the other team. And lastly, we have Releford. Personally, I think he’ll be the best of them all. He looks like a college defender. He’s got a great shot, good size to penetrate and just seems to do a little bit of everything.

As you’ve likely surmised, there’s plenty of potential here. But as of now, that’s all it really is. We’ve got one proven star. One with a lot of expectations. A couple capable role players. And seven others with promise and ability, but nothing else to this point. There probably aren’t more than a couple teams in the country with as much athletic ability as this one. But it’s safe to say that damn near everyone has more experience and probably more chemistry. This isn’t a team you’ll want to face come tournament time, but there will be some bumps along the way. Probably a lot of them, considering the tough non-conference schedule (Washington, Florida or Syracuse, UMASS, Temple, @ Arizona, Tennessee, Siena, @ Michigan State) that they’ll have to traverse even before conference play. But no matter what happens, it feels good to be defending a national championship again. It was a long time overdue.

Rock Chalk!

Five Reasons Kansas Could Win

For those that were skeptical, I did come up with five reasons. You may not agree with many (or any) of them, but they are five reasons. And if all five actually happen, I'll feel great about our chances. Unfortunately, I wasn't able to find any more links that even broached the hilarity of yesterday's, so you'll just have to settle for my thoughts.

1. Weather. Admittedly, this is a stupid reason. But the weather report in Austin today reveals a high of 79 and a low of 60 with some isolated thunderstorms. Meanwhile, in Lawrence we're looking at a high of 49, a low of 39 and a constant drizzle. The current forecast for Saturday has us at a high of 46, a low of 26 and 20 mph winds. With an AM kickoff, I'd expect game temperatures in the upper 30's, though the wind chill will have us feeling a little bit nipplier. Of Texas' 10 games this year, exactly one has been played outside of their home state. It was played in lovely Boulder on October 4th, so suffice it to say, they haven't been exposed to much cold weather.

Will it help us? I have no idea. But by using nothing more than location, game date and memory, it looks like they've played in cold weather exactly three times in the last 5 years. In 2004, they went 1-0 and I'm guessing most of you remember how that win came. They played none in '05. In 2006, they went 1-1 with a gift of a win in Nebraska and a loss in Manhattan. And they haven't played in one since then. So it certainly isn't beyond the realm of possibility that they could be affected by the blustery conditions.

2. Man defense. Due either to Duane Akina, Texas' young secondary, or both, they really can't play a zone. On the one hand, this sucks, because Todd can usually pick apart a zone with some time. But with time at a premium, it doesn't make much difference. So given the relative inexperience of their DBs and the preference of most receivers to go against man, this could be a good thing. Besides that, 1/3 of their starting defense just might be drunk.

Will it help us? Partially. We all know how Dezmon likes man coverage, so he should be in for a big day. And in a game where pressure is sure to be an issue, making it tough to sustain drives, it would be huge to get some big plays out of Dez. On the other hand, Kerry is usually better against a zone where he can find the soft spots, rather than have to work against one specific player as he nurses an injury. Despite Texas' athletic ability, there will be mismatches to exploit. None of their linebackers are particularly great in coverage. Earl Thomas is a pretty good safety, Blake Gideon is not, and they're both freshman. And they have no chance of covering Dez with just one guy (I think they'll try with Ryan Palmer). So we really should have some success against this group if we have time for plays to develop. It will be important to capitalize on opportunities though, because Muschamp doesn't like to make the same mistake twice.

3. Greg Davis. By pretty much every standard, he has had a great year. Texas is averaging over 44 points and 476 yards of offense per game. You can't ask for anything more than that. And though it's certainly not their strength, they've usually found a way to run the ball to keep things balanced (176 ypg). But Texas is a four wide team. It's what they do best and it's who they are. When they're taken out of this, they fall back to earth a bit and that's what happened in Lubbock.

Will it help us? I'm not sure. And unfortunately, I'm leaning towards no. Tech was able to get pressure with their front four which scared Greg into a more conservative offense that utilized a TE that couldn't really catch or block. We won't be able to do this, so we have to find other ways to scare Greg. And Mangino can only be asked to do so much. We absolutely won't win this game if we don't: a) force mistakes; b) force bad play-calling, or more likely c) both. If this means having Holt in a three point stance more often and replacing him with Arist, then that's what needs to be done. If this means dropping 8 and sending 3 while showing 5, then that's what needs to be done. If it means doing both and confusing the hell out of them, then that's what needs to be done. There's no chance we're stopping this team, but I'd like to believe that we could at least contain them. We'll see.

4. Todd Reesing. Last week was not his best game. And he still threw for 304 yards, 3 TDs and ran for another. Of course, there was also the 50% completion rate (and some of them were just misses on his part), the late INT (hell of a play though), and the 5 sacks he took. Though that last one can hardly be blamed on him. In fact, barely any of the blame should fall on him considering the pressure he was under and how much he had to create on his own. As I said the other day, if that first TD to Kerry didn't perfectly embody him, I don't know what does. Just an amazing play and we're going to need some more in that mold to sneak out a victory this week.

Will it help us? Absolutely. Whether he's been at his best or not, there's really only been one time in his tenure as a starter that he wasn't giving us the best chance to win (3rd quarter v. Tech). In every other game, whether it has come easily or he's had to improvise as he goes, he's found a way to keep putting points on the board and keep us in the game. It's a high standard to hold him to, but we can only hope for more of the same this week, because things are almost assuredly not going to come easy for him and his line. And assuming Colt is carving up our defense like most skilled quarterbacks have been doing, we're gonna need to keep putting up points just to keep the pace.

5. Memorial Stadium. First off, a shot at the Texas fans (likely not the ones actually taking the time to read this), but from the looks of this fan's perspective I don't think we'll see a plethora of burnt orange in the crowd on Saturday. Which makes it all the more important that the rest of us completely drown out the few that do make the trip. We've had plenty of practice with these early games, so by now you should have figured out how to be drunk and loud by 11:30. For some reason (i.e. it was Homecoming and everyone was out extremely late), this wasn't the case against Tech and I happen to believe it played a part. On paper, the team has little to no chance of winning this game, but as we know from being the favorite in nearly every basketball game we ever play – that doesn't always matter. The crowd can and should play a big part Saturday.

Will it help us? Definitely. It's no secret that Kansas fans have been waiting for this game since 2004 (if you need a good refresher, Tully Corcoran has a good post up) and should be ready to go. We had great energy for the K-State game and they're worthless, so there's no excuse not to be fired up this weekend. As I've said every time I've used this reason before, the stadium obviously isn't going to win the game for us and we're by no means invisible there, but we have no reason to believe it won't at least help. The only question will be; how much?

Rock Chalk!

Monday, November 10, 2008

Five Reasons Kansas Could Lose

I know, I know; how am I going to come up with five reasons a loss could happen? But rest assured I will find a way. They may not be on the surface, but they're out there. And I'm here to enlighten you. Let's just say I need more stuff like this to keep me smiling (H/T: Deadspin). And we're off...

1. Colt McCoy, Jordan Shipley, Quan Cosby. On the year, Colt has completed 78% of his passes for 2879 yards while mixing in 28 TDs and 7 INTs. Oh ya, and he's also ran for 449 yards and 7 more TDs. Of his passing stats, Shipley has grabbed 70 of those completions for 860 yards and 11 TDs. And Quan has grabbed 66 for 802 and 6 TDs. I haven't even mentioned Malcolm Williams, but he'll play a big role as well. Fuck.

Will it hurt us? Ummmmmm...yeah. There's a really easy comparison here that you don't have to go too far back to find (Ganz, Swift and Peterson). Not one of those guys even comes close to matching their Texas counterpart and yet they were able to more than have their way with the Jayhawk secondary. Ganz went 28/37 for 324, 3 TDs and 1 INT. Swift had 7 for 111 and a score. And Peterson had 5 for 72. There is really only one thing that can limit the production of these three – injury.

2. Orakpo, Miller, Lewis, Melton, & Houston. Thankfully, they only get to play four of them at a time. And truthfully, if we're having any success, they might just start taking their chances with three and dropping eight (unlikely, but plenty possible because they could still get pressure). For reference, the Texas defense has come up with 34 sacks (or 3.4/game) and they're currently 6th in the nation, allowing only 84 yards/ game (3.17 per) on the ground.

Will it hurt us? Well, considering Nebraska had all of 16 sacks prior to last week (1.77 per) and they were able to notch five, that doesn't look good. And since they were giving up 143 ypg rushing (4.3 per) and we were only able to net 118 (3.0 per), that doesn't look good either. Realistically, there are going to be three ways to move the ball: quick passes, rolling out the pocket and running on the outside.

3. Lateral movement (or lack thereof): To an extent I already touched on this in #1, but you just can't underestimate the success they're likely to have over the middle and on the outside. After seeing the success they had here against Oklahoma, I wonder if we'll force a punt. It's partly injuries and it's partly their physical limitations, but neither Rivera nor Mortensen can move laterally right now.

Will it hurt us? Assuming we don't change our entire defense and they're still asked to play zone coverage across the middle, as well as blitz, as well as tackle the likes of Whitaker, Ogbonnaya and McGee, then yes. And since I can't think of another option, I'm guessing that's exactly what we're going to see them trying to do. And unfortunately, I just can't see them having a whole lot of success. any chance we get some help from Greg Davis here?

4. The red zone. Actually, we've been fine in the red zone this year. We've scored 87% of the time (34th). And of the 40 scores, 31 have been TDs (78%). Both solid numbers. Defensively, we've also been decent. We've allowed a score 77% of the time (30th). Unfortunately, 85% of the scores (28/33) have gone for TDs. The bad side: Texas is better across the board.

Will it hurt us? Well, aside from the big play ability that Malcolm Williams now gives them, Texas has converted 91% (11th) of their trips to the red zone into points. 40 of those 48 scores (83%) have been TDs. Defensively, they are only allowing scores 72% (14th) of the time. Even better, of those scores only 65% (17/26) have been TDs. And since we likely won't be able to run the ball very well - and probably not at all on the inside – we'll become a one-dimensional offense that depends on spreading defenders out. Only we won't have room to spread them out because we'll be in the red zone. Time to get creative, Todd. That goes for you too, Mr. Warinner.

5. Special teams. I'm still in shock that this has become a weakness this year, but it's no longer even a debate. I don't have the exact quote but a few games ago, Russell Brorsen said, "Last year, when we'd watch the tape and say, if we'd blocked that guy better we might have had a touchdown. This year, we watch it and say, if we'd blocked these three guys, we might have been able to run it out a little farther." Ouch. And worse than that, now our coverage is starting to suffer as well. No one has taken one all the way back yet (FIU had a punt return), but the difference in field position has been enormous and was one of the biggest deciding factors in Saturday's outcome.

Will it hurt us? Probably. But to what degree? Like I said, we haven't been killed yet, but there have been plenty of TD saving tackles over the last handful of games. Jacob Branstetter should not have four tackles. Texas is pretty solid on both, averaging 12.2 on punt returns (26th) and 23.9 on kick returns (24th). They have a TD with each unit, both coming in big games and big spots and courtesy of Jordan Shipley. This may not be a big game and there may not be many big spots, but if we happen to keep things close, it will be extremely important to keep him contained and avoid losing any momentum we may have at the time. It's going to be hard enough to keep them out of the endzone as it is, so letting them score without running a play is unacceptable.

If you weren't worried yet, take notice that I just came up with five legitimate reasons Kansas could lose this game. And in doing so, I didn't even mention our defensive line (probably the weakest link on the team) once and the enormous amount of time they're going to allot Colt to find his many weapons and or create on his own. As you know, he's plenty capable of doing both. I'm going to try and convince myself there are also five reasons we can win. Perhaps that will cheer me up. I should probably play it safe and send the wife to the liquor store first.

Big XII RoundUp: Week Six

Another week. Another average performance in the picks. I started off the day very strong, but couldn't hold through the finish. For those keeping track, it was another 3-3 week ATS and 4-2 TGS. Man, was I wrong in Lubbock. The running totals for the season are now 27-9 TGS and 18-18 ATS. Not very satisfying. Let's just all be thankful we're not SEC fans.

1. Texas Tech (10-0, 6-0) – battered OSU 56-20. I'm still not sure if they're better than Texas, but as of right now, I don't really have an argument. Harrell was 40-50 for 456 and 6 TDs. They had 10 possessions that went: fumble, TD, TD, TD, TD, TD, TD, TD, fumble, TD. Are you shitting me? Up next: @ Oklahoma where the over/under on punts has been set at 1.

2. Texas (9-1, 5-1) - beat Baylor 45-21. And they are now Sooner fans. The Horns have to be hoping for a slopfest of a game that OU pulls out late; just enough to give Tech a loss, but not enough to forget that Texas already beat OU on a neutral field. Up next: @ Kansas for what could be a trap game if either of Kansas' lines could hold up their end of the bargain.

3. Oklahoma (9-1, 5-1) – destroyed A&M 66-28. For those curious, their last TD was scored with 4 minutes left in the third quarter. If they have any hope of winning either the Big XII or the MNC, they'll need something comparable in their last two as they don't figure to stop either Tech or Okie State much. Up next: a visit from their old friend, Mike Leach.

4. Oklahoma State (8-2, 4-2) – pulverized by Tech 56-20. I did not see this one coming. I also didn't get to see much of the game as I was on my way home from Lincoln. But I'm still a little confused how they picked up nearly 6 yards/carry and couldn't score or at least control the clock. I'm also a little confused how Dez Bryant has 15 receiving TDs on the year and not one of them has come outside of Boone Pickens Stadium. Up next: @ Colorado. This couldn't be the annual "where did that come from Colorado upset" could it?

5. Methzou (8-2, 4-2) – beat KSU 41-24. Really? That's all you could muster on Chase Night? If there was one line I was sure would be covered this weekend, it was this one. In their defense, they had it covered with just over a minute remaining. Then Brandon Banks scored 2 TDs in 50 seconds and all of a sudden, it looks respectable and the line is blown. Up next: @ ISU. Something similar seems likely.

6. Nebraska (6-4, 3-3) – beat Kansas 45-35. I might still believe Kansas is better, but there's really no defending it right now. And since they end with KSU and CU, anything less than 8-4 is inexcusable. They'll never again be what they were (maybe no one will), but they're certainly on their way back. Up next: @ KSU.

7. Kansas (6-4, 3-3) – lost @ Nebraska 45-35. The disappointments are many. And I've probably said enough already. So I'll just say this; they better find a way to win one of these next two. On paper, chances are slim to none. I'd like to think they're a little better on the field. Up next: Texas comes to town – feel free to leave Orakpo behind.

8. Baylor (3-7, 1-5) – lost @ Texas 45-21. It's a broken record by now, but despite their record, which team below them wouldn't they beat? Briles and Griffin are going to win some games for them the next couple of years. Up next: A&M travels to Waco. A must win for the Bears.

9. Colorado (5-5, 2-4) – snuck by ISU 28-24. And young Cody is back to life. For those unaware – and I imagine that's most of you – he came off the bench to throw four second half TDs. They may be worse than ninth, but at this point, who cares. Up next: OSU visits Boulder. Will Dez Bryant score his first road TD?

10. KSU (4-6, 1-5) – lost @ MU 41-24. Kudos to them for keeping it closer than anyone would have thought, even if two TDs came in the last 71 seconds. But a big thumbs down on burning your bridge with Gary Patterson. Not the best of ideas. But then again, Frank Martin is their other head coach, so what should I expect? Up next: Nebraska. This one just doesn't quite have the sizzle it did 10 years ago.

11. Texas A&M (4-6, 2-4) – destroyed by OU 66-28. Up next: Robert Griffin and the Baylor Bears in lovely Waco.

12. ISU (2-8, 0-6) – lost @ Colorado 28-24. Up next: MU. Two years ago, ISU welcome Chase and the Tigers for Senior Day. At the time ISU was 0-7 in the league. End result: an Iowa State win and another Pinkel moment. So this isn't uncharted territory.

Sunday, November 9, 2008

Nebraska React

Well, fuck. Another opportunity lost. I'd love to sit here and say that we"re making progress and there's no shame in a ten point loss at Nebraska. But that just isn't the case. And now, as many mistakes as were made against OU and Tech, this one and the one in Tampa are what will haunt us. I really believe that we've been the better team in 8 of our 10 games, yet we've found a way to lose two others, which is disappointing. And unfortunately, the only way to make up for that is to win a couple when we aren't the better team. We'll have our opportunities, but I don't feel great about our chances.

The outcome was: demoralizing. Despite our struggles, this was the best team we’d taken to Lincoln in a very long time. And yet the streak lives. And it didn’t have to. Sure, Nebraska dominated both sides of the line, but more than anything, Kansas just made mistakes in big spots. And now they sit at 6-4 with games against Texas and Methzouri remaining. Nebraska, meanwhile, is the same, but with KSU and Colorado remaining – likely leading them to 8-4 and the Sun Bowl.

The offensive MVP was: Todd Reesing. Dezmon certainly merits a ton of consideration here (6 for 176), but I’m just not ready to give the MVP to someone that only directly affected six plays and one score. And while yesterday certainly wasn’t Todd’s best (15/30 for 304), he still accounted for four scores, only made one bad mistake, and kept the team in it until the end. If that first TD pass to Kerry didn’t define both his career and character, I don’t know what does. Hopefully he’s not hurt (even if he is, he’ll be playing I’m sure), because we’re going to need some crazy efforts to win either of the next two.

The defensive MVP was: James Holt. And it wasn’t close. Without watching the tape, I think it was his missed assignment that allowed Suh to score that TD and he may have lost track of a couple trailers. But mistakes or not, he was the only one making plays. The INT was great, he got some pressure, forced another fumble and just always found himself around the ball. I hate to say it because of the effort he gives us on every play, but Holt has replaced Stuckey as the defensive MVP on defense this year.

The offensive LVP was: the line. They were bad against USF. They were bad again against Tech (and to a lesser extent, Oklahoma). But they were awful yesterday. Nebraska’s d-line is decent, sure, but they don’t generate a ton of pressure and they’re plenty capable of being run on. Yet yesterday they had five sacks and we couldn’t run inside. I’ll tip my cap to them for coming to play, but we have to get a better effort out of our line not only to win, but also to protect our QB. Please tell me Orakpo and Miller aren’t playing next week. Better yet, let’s not let them make the trip.

The defensive LVP was: the line. The pass rush has been non-existent against most legitimate opponents. And of course, yesterday was more of the same. But even more disappointing than that was how easily our ends kept getting sealed inside to let them run off tackle. Just atrocious. On the inside, I thought Greene and Blakesly looked solid to an extent, but they just didn’t have the energy to keep it up without Johnson, Jr. in there as well. He’s is sorely missed.

The special teams: seem to have become a problem again. The return game was pretty much worthless. And yet the kickoff team somehow found a way to be worse. Example: Jake scores to make the score 31-28 with about 10 minutes left. Basically, we’re in great position if we can either force a stop or contain them to a FG keeping it a one score game. So what does Branstetter do, but kick a low line drive about 20 yards, setting up an easy return to about the 50 yard line. I know the wind was a factor, but Kunalic wasn’t having much trouble, yet Branstetter looked like a high school kicker. At best.

The Nebraska fans: took a step down in my book. For one thing, I was pretty disappointed to see the gaping hole in the student section and other empties throughout. I guess you can call it a sell-out since those were sold, but whatever. And more than that, I think the whole “classiest fans around” went out with the dynasty. As a whole they certainly weren’t awful – or anything close to it – but we were surrounded by 50-60 year old men and women screaming for, Todd to be hurt, for Pelini to go deep four straight times when they took over in the last minute, and plenty of others. Now trust me, I have no problem at all with this type of stuff. I just think it’s funny that they play an entire video before the game talking about themselves as the best and classiest fans in the nation yet continue to act like everyone else. Of course, after the game and the win, it went back to not being able to take a step without being asked if you had a good time and what you thought of Lincoln.

Injury watch: Patterson went down and that proved to be a huge loss. I’m officially on board with this move. (For the record, I would love an explanation of why Mangino thinks Anthony Davis is a better option than Chris Harris at corner.) The loss of Johnson, Jr. continues to hurt the inside push, both because he was the best anyway and because of the hit the depth there takes without another body to rotate in. And I still have to wonder about Kerry’s and Dexton’s full health, because neither have looked entirely like themselves lately. Same with Mike and Joe, but we knew that already. It truly is amazing how much it limits their movement though.

The Briscoe drop: on the first play of our last possession will haunt my dreams for a while. I can’t even explain the wide open field he was looking at. If he catches that cleanly, he’s scoring with just over two minutes to go and we’re lining up for an onside with only a 3 point deficit. He played great and we wouldn’t have been there without him, but that one hurt pretty badly. If you thought they looked tentative on the first onside, can you imagine their mindset if they had given up 14 points in 20 seconds and were clinging to a FG lead…

Texas fear factor is: 10 out of 10. For one thing, they might be the best team in the country. And seeing as how it took a miraculous last second TD to beat them on the road after playing 3 straight top 10 games prior to that one, I don’t feel all that confident. I don’t have a clue how we're going to stop Colt and Shipley. Or anyone else for that matter (Malcolm Williams will create a match-up problem or two). And on the other side, if Todd’s not hurt already, I fear he may be next week. The protection has been bad all year, but somehow seemed to regress yesterday. And now they have to face Texas’ d-line. Not good. Stranger things have happened, but long story short, the staff better get pretty creative in these next few days.

Going into next week I feel: pretty shitty. We really missed a chance yesterday. A chance to end the streak. A chance to guarantee we play for the north. And another chance to take a step as a program. The loss prevented all three. And while neither of these games are unwinnable, neither look too damn good on paper either. So we’ll have two more chances to do what we missed out on yesterday (streak aside), but it’s no secret that the degree of difficulty changes just a bit in doing so.

Friday, November 7, 2008

Big XII Picks: Week Six

If you want any evidence as to the drastic tiering this year in the Big XII, take a look at this week's lines. Three are above 27. Two are below 4. And the toughest line of them all comes from the bottom of the barrel as Colorado is getting 10 against the Cyclones. Weird league. Anyway, I had another sub-par performance last week going 5-1 TGS and 3-3 ATS. For the season that dropped me to 23-7 TGS and 15-15 ATS. I've got precious little time to get back into the block, so I need to get things going this week.

Game of the week – Oklahoma State (+3.5) @ Texas Tech
I guess I've pretty much come full circle on the Pokes. I was probably the last to jump on the bandwagon, but now I'm hooked. More than anything, I just think they're a tough match up for Tech with their balance. Nebraska set the blueprint for what needed to be done and fell a little short. But OSU > Nebraska – in pretty much ever facet of the game. OSU 38 Tech 35

Baylor (+28) @ Texas
Admittedly, this one gives me pause. Baylor doesn't exactly have a history of success in Austin and Texas will be looking to exact revenge and get back headed for a BCS bowl. But they also just finished a four game gauntlet and they're reeling from injuries. If it were someone other than Baylor, this might be a prime upset pick, but I'll settle for a Bears cover. Texas 35 Baylor 20

KSU @ Methzou (-27)
Truthfully, none of us know how K-State will react to losing their Prince. But we do know that they suck, regardless. And on Chase Day in Columbia, I can't imagine the Tigers letting them hang around too close. Expect Chase 2 to be carving up that Powercat defense throughout the fourth quarter. MU 56 KSU 14

Oklahoma (-27) @ Texas A&M
Oklahoma dropping half a hundred is about as sure a thing as we've seen in a while. The only question is can Jerrod Johnson get past a quarter hundo? Maybe, but I think Stoops might want to start amping up Sammie's Heisman campaign. OU 56 A&M 24

ISU (-9.5) @ Colorado
Toughest line of the week. On the one hand, ISU has proven completely incapable of competing in the Big XII ever since halftime of the Kansas game. But on the other, Colorado is averaging a meager 11 points/game in league play, yet they are giving 10. In the end, that's just too much for me to lay down. Colorado 23 ISU14

Kansas (+1.5) @ Nebraska
Given the tiny spread, this is pretty much just a pick 'em, and you know I have a tough time picking against my Jayhawks (once in the last 2 years) – often for good reason. Mangino has come close to breaking this streak on his last two visits to Lincoln (14-8 and 39-32 in OT) with much lesser teams than he has this time around. We don't know where Bo Pelini is going to take the Huskers, but as of now, it's tough to argue that Kansas won't take a hit when we losing Reesing. So really, if he doesn't get it done this year it could be awhile. It's a pretty easy game plan – protect your defense, convert when you have the chance and don't make stupid (and costly) mistakes. Execution will be tougher, but is plenty doable. When that's the case, I like our chances. Kansas 34 Nebraska 28

Quickly

We have a few morning links for you today. The first of which comes from the WWL as Andy Katz put up a pretty good read about the transition from last year's national champion to this year's crop of newbies (he also has this piece of bullet points - the last of which makes little sense - and Dickie V says not to count us out). Amazing what a Championship will do for your perception. Secondly, here is a video taken by one of the skydivers that landed in Memorial Stadium for the Colorado game. Pretty cool. Real quick, if you have a second, give this silhouette trivia a try. And lastly, our friends at Corn Nation have posted both their Keys to the Game and the Q&A with GingerBalls and myself.

And lastly, as if you needed one more reason to get fired up for this weekend's game, have a look at Nate Swift's two point conversion that was the difference between Kansas winning in regulation and the game instead going into overtime. Thank god for replay review. Oh wait… This loss was the beginning of the end for 2006 - 4 straight losses with 2nd half (3 in 4th quarter) leads - that ultimately led to a 6-6 season and no bowl game. Then again, perhaps we shouldn't have blown that Toledo game either (37 points on 237 total yards and no second half first downs?!). We could be riding a 3 year bowl streak and poised to make it four. But, no I'm not bitter or anything.