Well I thought maybe 5 and maybe 6 at worst but the AP and ESPN poll have placed the hawks at #7. And maybe methzou gets the final laugh placing #4 after beating an unranked, uncoached, team in a bowl viewed by 2.5 million viewers.
Unreal.
Methzou not only losses one more time than the hawks but loses twice to a team who gets crushed in their bowl game. VT was 7-2 against bowl teams. KU 5-1 and Methzou 6-2. KU did not win the conference but then again neither did MU or Georgia for that matter so that can't be it.
Also KU's one loss is to a top 5 team in what ended up being a 1 possession loss. Much more than can be said for the tigers piss poor outing in the Big XII championship.
After the VT win and OU getting blown out in their bowl I think a lot of the SOS argument goes out the window. I might even be able to give MU one spot above KU for beating them but #4 vs #7? Ludicrous...
Don't even get me started about OSU being above KU the argument here is even stronger than the Methzou one on why this is a farse. At least that one comes down to name recognition, something methzou doesn't have.
Another interesting thing I just thought about... In the "bye week" before the bowls (conference championship week) were picked KU dropped from 5 to 8 and OSU moves from 3 to 1 even though neither played. wtf...
At the end of the day i think if KU would have scored one of their 2 missed scoring opportunities and maybe b-mac gets one more yard at the end of the game and we win 38-21 we are ranked #5. Still for a team ranked 8 to beat the 3 team, have 3 teams ahead of them lose and end up at 7 seems to be indicative of this whole system... broken...
Tuesday, January 8, 2008
Saturday, January 5, 2008
ACC Goes Down
For the second time in as many tries Kansas defeated an ACC opponent on the road today when they played Al Skinner's bunch in Chestnut Hill. This game went far better than their first one (@ GT) and it was clear that they have learned from their mistakes and how/when to put an opponent away. For the most part they always play hard and they usually play well, but today (especially after the altercation) they played angry. And that is what will take them where they want to go. I guess someone else agrees. On another note, I'm going to go out on a limb and guess that any time Arthur and Jackson combine for 47 points and 16 rebounds the Jayhawks will be just fine.
Speaking of predictions,I guess I was right about that game they call the Orange Bowl (and quite a few others), as Kansas defeated yet another ACC team, the champion in fact, Virginia Tech.
And really, the game couldn't have played out much more predictably. OK, so you can't predict a pick six and a punt return TD, but as a whole it rarely left the script.However, I do think Virginia Tech out-thought themselves and things could have been even tougher on the Jayhawks had they not. After re-watching the game, it really looked like early on they wanted to try and prove that they could break their tendencies - letting Taylor throw and running/play-action with Glennon. And even once Ore entered the game, they were usually able to run it pretty well, but they kept insisting on going down the field and a couple of blown calls aside, it just wasn't going to work. (Speaking of the telecast, why the shit is Fox so obsessed with the band? I'm thinking Joe Buck is behind this somehow...)
As for the Hawks, well, they were brilliant. Obviously the defense was great and aside from some questionable play-calling, particularly in the horrid third quarter, the offense was equally great against an incredible VT defense. Offensively, as predicted, if Reesing took care of the ball and kept the defense spread out, 23 points would be doable and sufficient. (And obviously by reaching the 1 yard line on 2 separate occasions, plenty more could have been scored as well.) As for the defensive predictions, well I said I didn't see the VT offense taking it to the house 3 times - and they didn't. Of course, they did return a punt with the help of an ignored block in the back, but the offense only scored twice. And lastly, I said Kyle Tucker had to have a good game - he went ahead and had a great one instead. For the record, I was extremely wrong in thinking there wouldn't be any game changing plays on special teams.
The game really turned out to be a microcosm of the season with everyone doing their part. Aqib Talib deservedly earned MVP honors with his pick 6 and subsequent mind fuck on the VT quarterbacks,
but it truly was as balanced an effort as can be made. Offensively, Reesing was great, McAnderson was solid, every receiver contributed, and the line protected pretty well. Defensively, Rivera was everywhere, Mortensen and Holt were sound, the ends got a good rush, McClinton had a push and the secondary came up with three picks all from different guys. And it all added up to a victory and complete justification for arguably the best season in the nation...I'm not saying they deserve to be national champions or that they are the best team, but can you really argue anyone had a better season? Unless aOSU beats LSU, I don't think so, because the only other 1 loss team will be Hawai'i and well, we all saw how much that held up against a real opponent. As for the 2 loss teams, your best arguments would be LSU & Methzou. LSU will have beaten the most legitimate teams, but they also have a home loss to a team that Methzou completely humiliated in Dallas along with a loss to a Kentucky team that could barely handle half of a mediocre FSU team. Methzou is a better argument because of November 24th, but the fact remains that they were handled in Norman and destroyed in San Antonio by a great, but 3 loss OU team. And don't give me UGA or USC because "they're hot" ... USC has been anointed as so by dominating ASU and Illinois - are you kidding me? I could give you at least 6-8 other teams that would do so as well. Georgia has definitely earned their stripes, but they were still demolished by an average Tennessee team and beaten at home by a team that didn't even make one of 32 bowls. Back to KU, their only loss is a one possession defeat to a top 5 team on a neutral field, and their best win comes over a top 5 team. If aOSU loses, LSU will have done plenty to justify their national championship, but they still will have not had a better overall season than the Jayhawks.
As mentioned in my Festivus post, the Kansas football and basketball teams ended up a combined 45-4 in 2007! Can it get any better? Well, thus far in 2008, they are 2-0 with an Orange Bowl Championship. Here's to adding another trophy to the case on April 7 in San Antonio... Hot Toddy!
Thanks for everything, Obie.
"I Guess They Gotta Say We Played Somebody Now!"
I still don't have the words to describe how great going to Miami and seeing my Hawks prevail was. So I thought I would post this for all those haters out there...just surreal...still
Welcome to the Good Life....even better than supermaning a classy Mizzou hoe
Monday, December 31, 2007
Orange Bowl Preview: Part III
Special Teams
Fittingly, the preview will end today with some bittersweet analysis as my mood is much the same – being at work,.png)
but knowing that tomorrow I will be in sunny Miami. It looks like Sean Glennon is already down there. But I digress. As the old adage goes, "Beamer ball" starts with special teams. So maybe that's not an adage at all, but it's definitely true.
Since the Big Man got to campus, I have always viewed special teams as something of an advantage, but nothing magnificent. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, counts on these units as much as they do their offense or defense. Over Frank beamer's 21 seasons there, they have blocked an incredible 171 kicks spanning 253 games. Fortunately, many of those came in the 90's before many times put much of a priority on these units. Still though, they have 4 blocks this year and 3 in the last 2 games. Two of their blocks have come on punts, and two on place kicks (FG and PAT against BC), so they can do it from every angle.
It's an understatement to say that Kyle Tucker has been a disappointment this year. I've made mention of it all year, but after his incredible sophomore season, this guy was a front-runner for the Ray Guy Award going into last year. And though he slumped a bit last year, it was nothing like this year. On the year he has averaged roughly 37 yards per punt, good for 111th in the nation. Fortunately, Kansas has a good coverage unit, ranking 24th and only yielding a little over 6 yards per return and no touchdowns. But with opponents just trying to get the kick off, coverage has often suffered as a consequence and VT ranks 8th nationally at 14.35 per return, with two taken to the house. Suffice it to say, Tucker needs to have a good day. He doesn't need to get away incredible kicks, but the unit as whole needs to make sure there aren't any game-changing plays when they're on the field.
Kansas' punt return unit has been similarly worthless. Fortunately, it's pretty much been all one guy's fault – whoever happens to be returning the kick. Things started off well with Pendleton taking one back for a score in week one and subsequently creating quite a YouTube clip. But since then, he got the dropsies and though sure handed, Webb seemed to have no idea when to call for a fair-catch, thus resulting in minimal return yardage. That could all change this week as Aqib Talib will get his shot at creating a spark. But don’t count on it. VT doesn't punt or cover punts exceptionally well, but they don't get burned either. They are a very good 20th at 42.5 per kick and a respectable 41st in coverage, only allowing 7.38 per return with none taken back. So perhaps Aqib could elude a few defenders, but I don't see him doing anything spectacular as they are sure to key on him as well.
The kickoffs should pretty much be a stalemate. Whereas Kansas ranks 3rd with a 26 yard average (2 TDs), Virginia Tech's coverage is 13th, only allowing 18.8 yards. On the opposite end, Kansas is a below average 75th covering kickoffs, allowing 22 yards but VT has been pretty pedestrian returning them, averaging 17.83 per return, with one TD.
As for the place kickers, the advantage again goes to the Hokies. Jud Dunlevy has been nothing short of great for VT this year. He is 42/44 on PATs and 21/24 on field goals. His long field goal was 52 yards and he has not missed inside 40 yards. Scott Webb, on the other hand has been disgustingly erratic. Like Tucker, he was counted on and provided consistent production if nothing spectacular. Known for not having a strong leg coming into the year, Webb was considered extremely reliable in short range. Then came a trip to College Station, where he missed three kicks, all within 40 yards. He rebounded nicely over the next few games until the biggest one, when he missed both attempts against Methzouri from 33 and 45 yards. He was given proper protection on each and neither were difficult kicks – he just shanked them. On the year, he has been great on PATs, converting 63/64 but less so when going for 3 points, making 17/24 with a long of 48. Needless to say, KU can ill-afford any more of these blunders.
Edge: Virginia Tech
Conclusion
So for those of you wondering, that takes the total up to VT 2: KU 1. The Hokies have the advantage on special teams and when Kansas has the ball, whereas the Jayhawks have the edge when the VT offense takes the field.
So Virginia Tech is going to walk away with this win as all the experts are saying, right? Wrong - it all comes down to weaknesses. And Kansas' weaknesses are much stronger than Virginia Tech's because of their balance. On the whole, the VT defense is better than the KU offense, but they aren't enough better to overcome their pedestrian offense. And though VT is better at special teams, I don't see any game changing plays being made there, which is what they're looking for. I said it before and I'll say it again, this one will be decided by what Kansas can get out of its quarterback. I feel like the rest of the game is somewhat predictable, but this could be the wild card. On the one hand, VT's speed and talent could be overwhelming for both Todd and the line. But on the other, the Hawks could spread them out just enough to neutralize this speed. If the latter occurs and he is able to take care of the ball while keeping the Hokies guessing, they will score enough to win the game. If he makes a couple mistakes like he did at Arrowhead, it could be a tough night. He's given me very little reason to doubt him, so I'm going with Hot Toddy.
Kansas 27 Virginia Tech 17
Just for good measure, here are a few links…
- Texas beat UCLA in Pauley and their blowout of Tennessee is starting to look better, but as predicted, their depth is taking a toll and losing to two Big 11 teams in as many tries is not how they wanted to go into the new year. Need to circle the wagons before the Gaels come calling.
- For the second time in a week, Methzou couldn't handle a team that was beaten by Miami (OH). This time they fell to Mississippi State, just a fortnight removed from their loss to South Alabama. And oh by the way, that team Methzou hasn't beaten since 1999 just lost to Tennessee State. Perhaps "40 Minutes of Purgatory" would be more representative?
- How 'bout those Sooners – now taking down Huggy Bear on the road. After a disastrous loss to SF Austin, they have since beaten Arkansas, Gonzaga and WVU. True, that's no murderer's row, but it's three quality wins that will look awfully good come bubble time.
- Not that I see it affecting the outcome too much, but White and Slaton have to be a little bit happy about this genius move.
- Nothing we didn't already know, but entertaining to see Lee Corso admit that he couldn't get any tail on his own.
- And finally, "Kansas has a linebacker who scares me…" says a VT beat writer.
Fittingly, the preview will end today with some bittersweet analysis as my mood is much the same – being at work,
but knowing that tomorrow I will be in sunny Miami. It looks like Sean Glennon is already down there. But I digress. As the old adage goes, "Beamer ball" starts with special teams. So maybe that's not an adage at all, but it's definitely true. Since the Big Man got to campus, I have always viewed special teams as something of an advantage, but nothing magnificent. Virginia Tech, on the other hand, counts on these units as much as they do their offense or defense. Over Frank beamer's 21 seasons there, they have blocked an incredible 171 kicks spanning 253 games. Fortunately, many of those came in the 90's before many times put much of a priority on these units. Still though, they have 4 blocks this year and 3 in the last 2 games. Two of their blocks have come on punts, and two on place kicks (FG and PAT against BC), so they can do it from every angle.
It's an understatement to say that Kyle Tucker has been a disappointment this year. I've made mention of it all year, but after his incredible sophomore season, this guy was a front-runner for the Ray Guy Award going into last year. And though he slumped a bit last year, it was nothing like this year. On the year he has averaged roughly 37 yards per punt, good for 111th in the nation. Fortunately, Kansas has a good coverage unit, ranking 24th and only yielding a little over 6 yards per return and no touchdowns. But with opponents just trying to get the kick off, coverage has often suffered as a consequence and VT ranks 8th nationally at 14.35 per return, with two taken to the house. Suffice it to say, Tucker needs to have a good day. He doesn't need to get away incredible kicks, but the unit as whole needs to make sure there aren't any game-changing plays when they're on the field.
Kansas' punt return unit has been similarly worthless. Fortunately, it's pretty much been all one guy's fault – whoever happens to be returning the kick. Things started off well with Pendleton taking one back for a score in week one and subsequently creating quite a YouTube clip. But since then, he got the dropsies and though sure handed, Webb seemed to have no idea when to call for a fair-catch, thus resulting in minimal return yardage. That could all change this week as Aqib Talib will get his shot at creating a spark. But don’t count on it. VT doesn't punt or cover punts exceptionally well, but they don't get burned either. They are a very good 20th at 42.5 per kick and a respectable 41st in coverage, only allowing 7.38 per return with none taken back. So perhaps Aqib could elude a few defenders, but I don't see him doing anything spectacular as they are sure to key on him as well.
The kickoffs should pretty much be a stalemate. Whereas Kansas ranks 3rd with a 26 yard average (2 TDs), Virginia Tech's coverage is 13th, only allowing 18.8 yards. On the opposite end, Kansas is a below average 75th covering kickoffs, allowing 22 yards but VT has been pretty pedestrian returning them, averaging 17.83 per return, with one TD.
As for the place kickers, the advantage again goes to the Hokies. Jud Dunlevy has been nothing short of great for VT this year. He is 42/44 on PATs and 21/24 on field goals. His long field goal was 52 yards and he has not missed inside 40 yards. Scott Webb, on the other hand has been disgustingly erratic. Like Tucker, he was counted on and provided consistent production if nothing spectacular. Known for not having a strong leg coming into the year, Webb was considered extremely reliable in short range. Then came a trip to College Station, where he missed three kicks, all within 40 yards. He rebounded nicely over the next few games until the biggest one, when he missed both attempts against Methzouri from 33 and 45 yards. He was given proper protection on each and neither were difficult kicks – he just shanked them. On the year, he has been great on PATs, converting 63/64 but less so when going for 3 points, making 17/24 with a long of 48. Needless to say, KU can ill-afford any more of these blunders.
Edge: Virginia Tech
Conclusion
So for those of you wondering, that takes the total up to VT 2: KU 1. The Hokies have the advantage on special teams and when Kansas has the ball, whereas the Jayhawks have the edge when the VT offense takes the field.
So Virginia Tech is going to walk away with this win as all the experts are saying, right? Wrong - it all comes down to weaknesses. And Kansas' weaknesses are much stronger than Virginia Tech's because of their balance. On the whole, the VT defense is better than the KU offense, but they aren't enough better to overcome their pedestrian offense. And though VT is better at special teams, I don't see any game changing plays being made there, which is what they're looking for. I said it before and I'll say it again, this one will be decided by what Kansas can get out of its quarterback. I feel like the rest of the game is somewhat predictable, but this could be the wild card. On the one hand, VT's speed and talent could be overwhelming for both Todd and the line. But on the other, the Hawks could spread them out just enough to neutralize this speed. If the latter occurs and he is able to take care of the ball while keeping the Hokies guessing, they will score enough to win the game. If he makes a couple mistakes like he did at Arrowhead, it could be a tough night. He's given me very little reason to doubt him, so I'm going with Hot Toddy.Kansas 27 Virginia Tech 17
Just for good measure, here are a few links…
- Texas beat UCLA in Pauley and their blowout of Tennessee is starting to look better, but as predicted, their depth is taking a toll and losing to two Big 11 teams in as many tries is not how they wanted to go into the new year. Need to circle the wagons before the Gaels come calling.
- For the second time in a week, Methzou couldn't handle a team that was beaten by Miami (OH). This time they fell to Mississippi State, just a fortnight removed from their loss to South Alabama. And oh by the way, that team Methzou hasn't beaten since 1999 just lost to Tennessee State. Perhaps "40 Minutes of Purgatory" would be more representative?
- How 'bout those Sooners – now taking down Huggy Bear on the road. After a disastrous loss to SF Austin, they have since beaten Arkansas, Gonzaga and WVU. True, that's no murderer's row, but it's three quality wins that will look awfully good come bubble time.
- Not that I see it affecting the outcome too much, but White and Slaton have to be a little bit happy about this genius move.
- Nothing we didn't already know, but entertaining to see Lee Corso admit that he couldn't get any tail on his own.
- And finally, "Kansas has a linebacker who scares me…" says a VT beat writer.
Sunday, December 30, 2007
Mangino gets Zooked...
Well looks like a certain Illini frontman edged out the fat man for liberty mutual coach of the year.
Zooked
This of course pisses me off a bit and I won't even get into the merits of their rose bowl bid least I end up sounding like a hypocrite.
And also in a surprise to no one with a pulse or a clue about how the NFL works, Booger will be returning to Methzou next year. For selfish reasons I would not have minded if he left as a) he made us look bad this year and I would have liked not seeing him next year and b) I wanted to laugh when he did not get picked up by anyone after not going in the 5th or 6th round.
Appears the other juniors will be returning as well. As much as it pains me to say it the piss and black should be the team to beat in the north next year along with the hawks.
Zooked
This of course pisses me off a bit and I won't even get into the merits of their rose bowl bid least I end up sounding like a hypocrite.
And also in a surprise to no one with a pulse or a clue about how the NFL works, Booger will be returning to Methzou next year. For selfish reasons I would not have minded if he left as a) he made us look bad this year and I would have liked not seeing him next year and b) I wanted to laugh when he did not get picked up by anyone after not going in the 5th or 6th round.
Appears the other juniors will be returning as well. As much as it pains me to say it the piss and black should be the team to beat in the north next year along with the hawks.
Friday, December 28, 2007
Orange Bowl Preview: Part II
Kansas Offense v. Virginia Tech Defense
Well, it's now Friday and it's snowing, so what better time to talk about the less fortuitous match-up against the Hokie Defense. Idea #1 would be getting defensive coordinator Bud Foster to take the WVU job like now. If idea #1 doesn't pan out – and even if it does – the best thing Kansas has going for them is that VT has not seen an offense like theirs. The question remains – does it matter?
Statistically speaking, it should be a great match-up and while Kansas' offense isn't quite as good as that stats say, it's hard to defend when it's used correctly and even harder to prepare for because you can't simulate timing. Unfortunately, Virginia Tech's defense is somewhat similar. They have padded their stats too (discussed shortly), but it's inarguable that they have a great defensive team and you absolutely can't simulate their speed. Since Kansas hasn't faced a defense like this all year, the comparables we'll be using are the best offenses VT has seen.
I liked how we did things yesterday, so let's get things started with the name of the game - scoring. Both units are second in the nation. Kansas has racked up over 44 per game, while Virginia Tech has allowed 15 ½. Stating the obvious, Kansas isn't scoring 44 this time out. But they're not going to be held to 15 either.
The top three scoring offenses VT has seen are LSU (12th at 39/game), Clemson (22nd at 34/game) and BC (55th at 29/game). Not exactly a murderer's row of supermen. When VT played these teams, they were humiliated by LSU for 48 points and it could have been worse. But they held Clemson and BC (both times) below their averages. To Clemson they yielded 23 and to BC they allowed 14 and 16. All three are very solid performances, but I don't think there is any doubt that Kansas has a much more dynamic and productive offense than BC and you'd have a tough time convincing anyone that they aren't at the very least Clemson's equal. Maybe I'm wrong here, but per my analysis yesterday, if Kansas puts up 23+ I think they are in great shape. (Note: Ohio (45) and ECU (47) are ranked ahead of BC in scoring, but were excluded for obvious reasons.)
So the obvious question is; how are they getting to 23? For now we're going to discuss total offense, but I'll give you a hint: Hot Toddy is involved. Both units are again top ranked with Kansas coming in at 6th and VT 5th. To get there the KU offense has accounted for 491 yards (6.45 per) leading to 64 touchdowns. And the VT defense has held opponents to 292 yards (4.3 per) and 24 TDs. Again it makes the most sense to look at their best opponents, who were LSU (20th at 448), BC (27th at 437) and Clemson (47th at 412). They were again bludgeoned by LSU for 598, but were much better in the others. They held BC to 317 the first time and 387 the second and they held Clemson to 380. So nothing that really blows your hair back, but solid outside of Baton Rouge. My argument again would be that Kansas is every bit as good if not better than BC/Clemson and getting at/near 400 yards would likely be enough good for the aforementioned 23ish points.
Now for the bad news. I'm not sure how well the Hawks are running in this game, as the Hokies are a bit stingy here. Statistically, Kansas is 27th with 197 per game (5/carry) and 29 touchdowns.
But if you saw the Methzou game, you are worried. Especially when you consider that VT is ranked 5th and only allows 87 per game (2.75/carry). Fortunately, they again have not faced the stiffest of competition. Their top three opponents in terms of rushing offense were LSU (11th at 219), Georgia Tech (18th at 203) and Clemson (50th at 159). And similarly, they were raped by LSU for 297 yards, but were solid against GT and extraordinary against Clemson (though aided by Tommy Bowden). Against GT they allowed a very acceptable 105 yards, nearly 100 below their season average. Against Clemson on the other hand, they yielded a staggering 8 yards, or 151 below their average and if you've watched James Davis or C.J. Spiller, this is no small feat. You do have to consider that after falling behind 17-0 very early (Pick 6, FG, Punt Return TD), Bobby's son forgot he could still run the ball, giving it to each back only 6 times, while letting Cullen Harper throw 66 times. So I'm impressed but it's not quite as astonishing at the core of it. So as you may have guessed, Kansas is going to have to be quite a bit more diverse with their play calling on the ground and they are definitely going to need to pass to open up the run.
Fortunately, that seems rather doable. Needless to say, they're a bit more promiscuous here. That is not to say that VT doesn't defend the pass well, but it's certainly less of a fortress than their run defense.
On the year they rank 27th, allowing a 53% completion rate for 207 yards. More specifically, they allow 5.6/attempt and 10.5/completion. So calling it a chink in the armor might be a bit much, but it's unquestionably vulnerable. The Kansas passing attack is ranked 14th on account of 295 yards per game and 35 touchdowns. They've averaged 8 yards per attempt and 13/completion, which they do 64% of the time. These are the statistics I would argue are by no means inflated – and I think you could easily dispute that they are somewhat deflated. Whereas the defense was able to beef up its stats against the poor early competition, Reesing was always on the sideline by the 4th quarter as Kansas' backup running backs were grinding out the clock.
There are two things I primarily like about this match-up and one that I don't. First the latter, I'm concerned about Kansas' ability to protect Reesing. On the year, they've allowed 22 sacks (47th), while VT has gotten to its opposing QB on 43 occasions (8th). Specifically, three players worry me. First, DE Chris Ellis is a thrill to watch unless you're facing his team. And from the linebacking corps, Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall are both extremely active, instinctive and just plain fast. The Kansas O-line had trouble with players not nearly as skilled as these three against Methzou and the coaches forgot to roll Todd out until the 2nd half. If the same occurs, I'd hope they have learned from their mistake.
But onto the positives, Virginia Tech has not seen an offense anything like Kansas' all year. As you've noticed, they haven't played too many offensive juggernauts at all and certainly none that spread the field or throw it as well as the Jayhawks. The top three passing attacks they faced were BC (6th at 329 yards), Clemson (40th at 254 yards) and LSU (59th at 229 yards). They held BC slightly below, giving up 285 the first time and 305 the second. They had no such luck against Clemson, allowing 372 or LSU, when they yielded 301 – both well above their respective averages. Take that for what you will, but the best equalizer in football right now is the ability to spread the field and Kansas does it much better than any of those teams.
The other thing I like here is Kansas' ball security.
This has been an enormous advantage for the Jayhawks all year and can be in this game also. As you may remember from yesterday, the VT offense is beyond bad and as a team they're extremely dependant on getting points/field position from their defense and special teams (preview to come soon), so holding onto the ball is essential. And fortunately, Hot Toddy usually doesn't have a problem doing so. Aside from his 32:6 TD: INT ratio, he also went 6+ games without a turnover of any kind. His six turnovers have come in 3 games, which means he has been turnover free in 75% of them – bump that up to 77% and he'll be shocking at least one lass later that evening. It's not a stretch to say that his 2 picks against Methzou were the difference and if he avoids those same mistakes, I like their chances to move the ball through the air.
Which brings us to the little things - where Kansas also has the edge. Most notably, the only teams that have been as disciplined as Kansas are made of up members of a service academy, as Kansas, Army, and Navy tied for fewest penalties on the year. In a game where yards may be hard to come by, not shooting yourself in the dick with a stupid penalty will be a key to sustaining drives. And just as importantly, Kansas needs to find a way to convert a decent percentage of their 3rd downs. They currently rank 28th, converting 44% of their chances, while VT is 3rd, only allowing a conversion 29% of the time. Anything over 35% would be well received by yours truly.
As was the case yesterday, I'm not sure if I told you much you didn't know here – but it's always nice to confirm suspicions with numbers. Although in this case, maybe I would have been better off having not known what VT can do to a running game. Contrarily, it was rather refreshing to reaffirm my belief that they haven't played against an offense that would be in the top half of the Big 12 (LSU aside, but I think even VT would rather I not analyze that one too much). As clichéd as it sounds, I really think this game will ultimately come down to the Kansas QB play. If Todd can spread the field and take care of the ball, there is no reason they can't get into the 20s and as I mentioned yesterday, I'm inclined to think that will be enough. For those of you scoring at home, though…
Edge: Virginia Tech
And since we all enjoyed them yesterday, here are a few links to bide the time…
First, courtesy of The Big Lead, enjoy the wonderful world of hate mail – which apparently was written by someone with no familiarity to the English language and how it is presented in writing.
And another from TBL, wondering about D-Mac's Cotton Bowl Availability?
For the second straight day, here is some Alamo Bowl discussion. More than anything, I just like the picture of these hellacious d-bags.
And for those that care, Bobby Frasor is gone for the season with a torn ACL. I'm not in the camp that thinks this is make or break for Roy's boys, but he their biggest weakness is from beyond the arc and he was one of their best. He was also one of their best perimeter defenders.
Even though it's been beaten to death already, I just want to thank Texas for overcoming the efforts of Mack's red-headed stepchild Chris Jessie and ensuring that I will finish over .500 this college football season.
Well, it's now Friday and it's snowing, so what better time to talk about the less fortuitous match-up against the Hokie Defense. Idea #1 would be getting defensive coordinator Bud Foster to take the WVU job like now. If idea #1 doesn't pan out – and even if it does – the best thing Kansas has going for them is that VT has not seen an offense like theirs. The question remains – does it matter?
Statistically speaking, it should be a great match-up and while Kansas' offense isn't quite as good as that stats say, it's hard to defend when it's used correctly and even harder to prepare for because you can't simulate timing. Unfortunately, Virginia Tech's defense is somewhat similar. They have padded their stats too (discussed shortly), but it's inarguable that they have a great defensive team and you absolutely can't simulate their speed. Since Kansas hasn't faced a defense like this all year, the comparables we'll be using are the best offenses VT has seen.
I liked how we did things yesterday, so let's get things started with the name of the game - scoring. Both units are second in the nation. Kansas has racked up over 44 per game, while Virginia Tech has allowed 15 ½. Stating the obvious, Kansas isn't scoring 44 this time out. But they're not going to be held to 15 either.
The top three scoring offenses VT has seen are LSU (12th at 39/game), Clemson (22nd at 34/game) and BC (55th at 29/game). Not exactly a murderer's row of supermen. When VT played these teams, they were humiliated by LSU for 48 points and it could have been worse. But they held Clemson and BC (both times) below their averages. To Clemson they yielded 23 and to BC they allowed 14 and 16. All three are very solid performances, but I don't think there is any doubt that Kansas has a much more dynamic and productive offense than BC and you'd have a tough time convincing anyone that they aren't at the very least Clemson's equal. Maybe I'm wrong here, but per my analysis yesterday, if Kansas puts up 23+ I think they are in great shape. (Note: Ohio (45) and ECU (47) are ranked ahead of BC in scoring, but were excluded for obvious reasons.)So the obvious question is; how are they getting to 23? For now we're going to discuss total offense, but I'll give you a hint: Hot Toddy is involved. Both units are again top ranked with Kansas coming in at 6th and VT 5th. To get there the KU offense has accounted for 491 yards (6.45 per) leading to 64 touchdowns. And the VT defense has held opponents to 292 yards (4.3 per) and 24 TDs. Again it makes the most sense to look at their best opponents, who were LSU (20th at 448), BC (27th at 437) and Clemson (47th at 412). They were again bludgeoned by LSU for 598, but were much better in the others. They held BC to 317 the first time and 387 the second and they held Clemson to 380. So nothing that really blows your hair back, but solid outside of Baton Rouge. My argument again would be that Kansas is every bit as good if not better than BC/Clemson and getting at/near 400 yards would likely be enough good for the aforementioned 23ish points.
Now for the bad news. I'm not sure how well the Hawks are running in this game, as the Hokies are a bit stingy here. Statistically, Kansas is 27th with 197 per game (5/carry) and 29 touchdowns.
But if you saw the Methzou game, you are worried. Especially when you consider that VT is ranked 5th and only allows 87 per game (2.75/carry). Fortunately, they again have not faced the stiffest of competition. Their top three opponents in terms of rushing offense were LSU (11th at 219), Georgia Tech (18th at 203) and Clemson (50th at 159). And similarly, they were raped by LSU for 297 yards, but were solid against GT and extraordinary against Clemson (though aided by Tommy Bowden). Against GT they allowed a very acceptable 105 yards, nearly 100 below their season average. Against Clemson on the other hand, they yielded a staggering 8 yards, or 151 below their average and if you've watched James Davis or C.J. Spiller, this is no small feat. You do have to consider that after falling behind 17-0 very early (Pick 6, FG, Punt Return TD), Bobby's son forgot he could still run the ball, giving it to each back only 6 times, while letting Cullen Harper throw 66 times. So I'm impressed but it's not quite as astonishing at the core of it. So as you may have guessed, Kansas is going to have to be quite a bit more diverse with their play calling on the ground and they are definitely going to need to pass to open up the run.Fortunately, that seems rather doable. Needless to say, they're a bit more promiscuous here. That is not to say that VT doesn't defend the pass well, but it's certainly less of a fortress than their run defense.
On the year they rank 27th, allowing a 53% completion rate for 207 yards. More specifically, they allow 5.6/attempt and 10.5/completion. So calling it a chink in the armor might be a bit much, but it's unquestionably vulnerable. The Kansas passing attack is ranked 14th on account of 295 yards per game and 35 touchdowns. They've averaged 8 yards per attempt and 13/completion, which they do 64% of the time. These are the statistics I would argue are by no means inflated – and I think you could easily dispute that they are somewhat deflated. Whereas the defense was able to beef up its stats against the poor early competition, Reesing was always on the sideline by the 4th quarter as Kansas' backup running backs were grinding out the clock. There are two things I primarily like about this match-up and one that I don't. First the latter, I'm concerned about Kansas' ability to protect Reesing. On the year, they've allowed 22 sacks (47th), while VT has gotten to its opposing QB on 43 occasions (8th). Specifically, three players worry me. First, DE Chris Ellis is a thrill to watch unless you're facing his team. And from the linebacking corps, Xavier Adibi and Vince Hall are both extremely active, instinctive and just plain fast. The Kansas O-line had trouble with players not nearly as skilled as these three against Methzou and the coaches forgot to roll Todd out until the 2nd half. If the same occurs, I'd hope they have learned from their mistake.
But onto the positives, Virginia Tech has not seen an offense anything like Kansas' all year. As you've noticed, they haven't played too many offensive juggernauts at all and certainly none that spread the field or throw it as well as the Jayhawks. The top three passing attacks they faced were BC (6th at 329 yards), Clemson (40th at 254 yards) and LSU (59th at 229 yards). They held BC slightly below, giving up 285 the first time and 305 the second. They had no such luck against Clemson, allowing 372 or LSU, when they yielded 301 – both well above their respective averages. Take that for what you will, but the best equalizer in football right now is the ability to spread the field and Kansas does it much better than any of those teams.
The other thing I like here is Kansas' ball security.
This has been an enormous advantage for the Jayhawks all year and can be in this game also. As you may remember from yesterday, the VT offense is beyond bad and as a team they're extremely dependant on getting points/field position from their defense and special teams (preview to come soon), so holding onto the ball is essential. And fortunately, Hot Toddy usually doesn't have a problem doing so. Aside from his 32:6 TD: INT ratio, he also went 6+ games without a turnover of any kind. His six turnovers have come in 3 games, which means he has been turnover free in 75% of them – bump that up to 77% and he'll be shocking at least one lass later that evening. It's not a stretch to say that his 2 picks against Methzou were the difference and if he avoids those same mistakes, I like their chances to move the ball through the air.Which brings us to the little things - where Kansas also has the edge. Most notably, the only teams that have been as disciplined as Kansas are made of up members of a service academy, as Kansas, Army, and Navy tied for fewest penalties on the year. In a game where yards may be hard to come by, not shooting yourself in the dick with a stupid penalty will be a key to sustaining drives. And just as importantly, Kansas needs to find a way to convert a decent percentage of their 3rd downs. They currently rank 28th, converting 44% of their chances, while VT is 3rd, only allowing a conversion 29% of the time. Anything over 35% would be well received by yours truly.
As was the case yesterday, I'm not sure if I told you much you didn't know here – but it's always nice to confirm suspicions with numbers. Although in this case, maybe I would have been better off having not known what VT can do to a running game. Contrarily, it was rather refreshing to reaffirm my belief that they haven't played against an offense that would be in the top half of the Big 12 (LSU aside, but I think even VT would rather I not analyze that one too much). As clichéd as it sounds, I really think this game will ultimately come down to the Kansas QB play. If Todd can spread the field and take care of the ball, there is no reason they can't get into the 20s and as I mentioned yesterday, I'm inclined to think that will be enough. For those of you scoring at home, though…
Edge: Virginia Tech
And since we all enjoyed them yesterday, here are a few links to bide the time…
First, courtesy of The Big Lead, enjoy the wonderful world of hate mail – which apparently was written by someone with no familiarity to the English language and how it is presented in writing.
And another from TBL, wondering about D-Mac's Cotton Bowl Availability?
For the second straight day, here is some Alamo Bowl discussion. More than anything, I just like the picture of these hellacious d-bags.
And for those that care, Bobby Frasor is gone for the season with a torn ACL. I'm not in the camp that thinks this is make or break for Roy's boys, but he their biggest weakness is from beyond the arc and he was one of their best. He was also one of their best perimeter defenders.
Even though it's been beaten to death already, I just want to thank Texas for overcoming the efforts of Mack's red-headed stepchild Chris Jessie and ensuring that I will finish over .500 this college football season.
Bienvenido a Miami
If you needed any further proof that KU football (thinks) it has arrived look no further than Jamal Greene sporting his best "prime time" sanders suit while boarding the plane to the city that parties all night on the beach till the break of dawn. Respect!
The only thing that really could make it better is the addition of a technicolor dreamcoat to go along with the strong pimp hand.
The only thing that really could make it better is the addition of a technicolor dreamcoat to go along with the strong pimp hand.
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