Friday, January 16, 2009

Mini-Preview: Missouri

The best thing you can say about Missouri is that is has depth. And the worst thing you can say about Missouri is that is has depth. A whopping 11 players are averaging double figure minutes, though two are only effective on a nightly basis. Both of those figures rely on Leo "the lion" Lyons being reinstated at some point after his latest infraction with the law. By the way, does an indefinite suspension make sense to any for the alleged transgression of an "unpaid traffic ticket?" There has to be something more there, right? Right. Moving on, I say their depth is both good and bad, because it speaks to their style of play – which was well chronicled here (and part 2 is here).

Anderson's Forty Minutes of Heck makes absolutely no sense in this era of college basketball, let alone the Big XII. Every so often you face a team as bad as Colorado, in your building, you get a little hot and a 45 point win ensues. Sometimes it even happens against decent teams like Cal. But more often than not, you find yourself on the road, against a shit-tastic Nebraska team and you can barely come up with 50 points so you walk out losers. This can also happen against mediocre teams on a neutral court. Truthfully, we don't yet know what to expect out of the Tigers this year. They've played four competent teams (USC, Cal, Xavier, & Illinois), going 2-2 in the process. And they're 1-1 against Nebraska and Colorado, whatever you want to call them. So I guess we should consider them average.

You know most of the players, so I won't delve into them much except to highlight a few notable statistics that may interest you. Carroll, Lyons and to an extent, Tiller (7.6/game), are the only scoring options – nothing new – with Carroll and Lyons being the only competent rebounders on the team (no one else is averaging more than 3). Matt Lawrence has actually turned himself into a 42% 3-point shooter again, though that's a little misleading considering he's a startling bad 4/27 (14.8%) in their games against: XU, USC, Cal, IU, NU, otherwise known as their only legitimate competition. Additionally, I've seen decent stuff out of Denmon, Taylor, English and even Bowers – and I think we all know and respect the tutelage young Miguel Paul has received (and update). Denmon is clearly the most ready and may even turn out to be the best down the road, but none of these guys should be getting the type of minutes they're being afforded now.

This year's Tigers team has some potential. I'd even say they're capable of beating every team in the league – and not just in the sense that "on any given day…" – but that they have a different type of system to prepare for, along with just enough talent that if they're hitting shots they become very dangerous. Fortunately, they're still Missouri so they're likely to parlay this potential into something in the region of 8-8 and a restless few days waiting for their NIT seed.

Up next: Texas

Mini-Preview: Texas A&M

Quickly, I'm don't necessarily agree with all fifteen selections, but every time Jay Bilas speaks/writes it becomes painfully obvious how much more intelligent he is than everyone else at ESPN. Ombudsman not included.

The Turgeon General has quietly pieced together another decent squad of Aggies. Are they officially a basketball school now? I vote yes and really I don't see an argument against such a vote. On the one hand, there is a very probable chance that this will be their fourth consecutive NCAA tournament team. And to this day, they are still the only Big XII South team to win a single game in AllenFieldhouse since the formation of the league. Meanwhile, aside from a few Tier 2 bowl game losses, the football team has done almost nothing and continues to sink further into irrelevancy. Where's the debate?

Back to this team, I've been surprisingly impressed. They don't do any one thing very well, but they've got a few really good college players and some complimentary parts around them to fill in the gaps. Their NBA radar starts and stops with Josh Carter, unquestionably their best all around player. Carter came in as a three point shooter (and still carries that reputation), but has slowly become much more dangerous as a slasher – except no one has told him yet. Listed at 6'7" (more like 6'5"), there is no reason that nearly 60% of his shots should be coming from more than 20 feet – especially when he's only making them 37% of the time. That's a solid number sure, but he's almost always going to be a match-up problem with his size and speed, yet he rarely utilizes either. It sounds like I'm down on him (and I am), but really I'd take him on my team in a second – if for no other reason than his great defense, which I failed to mention up until this point.

Their other two primary known weapons are Donald Sloan and Bryan Davis. Sloan is extremely quick and good with the ball (2.3/1 A/TO ratio) and has actually become somewhat of an outside threat (38%) though he doesn't shoot them often. And like any Aggie that plays, his worth is really proven defensively. Bryan Davis is somewhat of a wildebeest with a surprisingly good touch. At 6'9" 240, I'd like to see him grab more than 6 boards a game, but it's tough to do when he limits himself to 26 minutes by way of either fouls or exhaustion. It's hit or miss with him – he's either dominant or invisible, rarely putting together an average game.

The surprise of the season has to be Chinemelu Elonu. For the year, his numbers aren't gaudy (11 & 8), but as a guy that gave them 3 & 3 a year ago, I didn't see this one coming. And what's more, he seems to be getting better as the year goes along (novel concept), really turning it on since the start of conference play – 20 & 12 @ OSU, 17 & 16 v. Baylor. He's unquestionably their best rebounder (6 double digit performances) and if he can continue to give them 30 minutes and anything near his recent production, they take a giant step up. If this is just a quick fluke, then they need to be re-evaluated (see: his 4 points, 0 boards and 5 fouls in their inexcusable loss to Tulsa - to be fair he was going against Jerome Jordan, a vastly underrated player). Aside from those mentioned, Holmes, Roland and even Dash Harris contribute nightly with varying degrees of success. As role players on marginal teams are wont to do, they've only been consistent at being inconsistent. Holmes is clearly the best of the three, but he doesn't always show up so it really varies from game to game.

As mentioned, this Aggie team is a surprise. I didn't think they'd be awful by any means, but I also didn't think of them as a tournament team with a chance to get a bye in Oklahoma City. Now, I'm not so sure. They've got four wins that should hold up ('Zona, LSU, @ 'Bama, and Baylor) and only one bad loss (Tulsa) as there's no shame in losing in Stillwater. They've got a good chance to add another Saturday when the Sooners visit and we'll get our first up-close look on Monday when they travel to Allen Fieldhouse. This is a team to keep an eye on though.

Up next: Missouri

Mini-Preview: Baylor

Even in this part of the country, everyone seems to forget about Baylor – most likely, this is out of habit. But Scott Drew has himself some players down their in Waco. I don't know HOW he's getting players to Waco, but that matters not. Seriously, is there is a less likely fit than LaceDarius Dunn going to college in a place where "Fuck it" is pronounced "Goosefeathers" and only relevant landmark is the Dr. Pepper Museum? Of course not, but he keeps luring them in. If only he were teaching them a thing or two once they arrived, then they'd really have something.

By now, you know all the relevant pieces: Jerrels, Dugat, Dunn, Rogers, Tweety Carter, and of course, Sir Mamadou Diene. And as expected, nothing has really changed. Each of these guys (minus Mamadou) is capable of getting 20 on any given night – all of them will get into double figures – and none of them will play much individual defense, let alone any sort of competent team defense. Which is why they'll win a lot games, be dangerous against everyone they play, but ultimately accomplish nothing more than a decent win total and tournament appearance.

The one new guy worth mentioning is Quincy Acy. A 6'7" freshman, Acy has the build of your standard 12 year old Ethiopian and has been good for about 16 minutes, 6 points and 4 boards a game. But when he shoots, he makes it – 76% of the time. Though he's cooled off a bit since the first three games in which he went: 6/6, 7/7, & 5/5, respectively. It does bear mentioning that the opponents were PaulQuin, Centenary & Southern, (where in goosefeathers do they find these teams?!) but impressive nonetheless that he went 3+ games without missing. Before you get too impressed, it should also be noted that nearly every one of these shots has come from within 3 feet and he's currently converting 44% of his free throws (15/34) so a sharpshooter he is not.

I'd love to say I have some new insight on Baylor, but really they're all just a year older and now without the Australian guy that was a star when he showed up and became less relevant by the season. They'll be extremely tough to beat at the Ferrell Center (although the South Carolina loss had to be a bit humbling) and a combination of dangerous and shitty on the road. They're clearly a top tier team and 10+ wins is very much within their reach. But if you've got some size, remain competent on offense and limit their open looks, there's a good chance you're beating the Baylor Bears.

Up next: Texas A&M

Thursday, January 15, 2009

Mini-Preview: Colorado Buffaloes

I mentioned in our preliminary conference rankings that Colorado was the worst team – last night, that hypothesis was confirmed beyond a shadow of a doubt. Missouri isn't a bad team – despite their inability to beat the smurfs from Nebraska – but 45 points is a complete disgrace. Like most teams, Colorado is a lot better in Boulder than anywhere else – but even there they haven't been good. In fact, their best performance of the year might have been their 14 point loss out in Palo Alto to an average Stanford team. Their many other losses include: roadies at SMU and last night in Columbia, & on a neutral Hawaii court to Buffalo and Vermont (25 points). Even at home, they've been beaten by Montana State and TCU. Their best win is a toss-up between Harvard, Colorado State and Coppin State. This season has not been kind to Jeff Bzdelik and his young Buffs.

Basically, if you slow down Cory Higgins you've got the game won. And chances are you don't even have to do that – though they had played pretty good defense until last night. For the year, Higgins (6'5") is scoring just shy of 18 points and grabbing 6 rebounds per game – both team bests by a wide margin. Higgins' specialty is getting into the paint, but he can hit from deep as well (38%), though he hasn't really shown the ability to hit more than 1 or 2 per game. In addition, though he doesn't lead the team in assists, he really is their best creator because of the respect he is given by opposing teams.

Aside from Higgins, they've got decent scoring options in Thorne (12), Dufault (9) and even Tomlinson (9). At 6'2", Thorne is sadly their fourth leading rebounder (3.5) and really he's just a guy that's going to hit an open three or two and probably mix it up just enough inside to get a couple buckets. Dufault is their "big man" – at a massive 6'8" 210 pounds – and he leverages that size into nearly 10 points and just shy of four boards per outing. The other big the like to play is Casey Crawford (6'9" 235), who those in the area may remember from his days at Blue Valley North not too long ago. He was pretty much a douche then, still was when he tried to play at Wake Forest, and nothing has really changed as he still only parlays that body size into a big who likes to face the basket & shoot threes with relative success. And then you have their young Australian PG, Nate Tomlinson. He's semi-quick, a decent distributor (3.6/gm. with no one to distribute to) and can score it a little bit (9/game). Others you'll likely see are Jackson-Wilson, Knutson and Eckloff. J-W is a solid wing that is probably their best rebounder given his limited minutes – but he's incredibly raw and can't do much offensively. Knutson and Eckloff are 6'9" – that's about it.

Basically, the Buffaloes are going to try and guard you. For most of the season, they've been able to do that with decent effectiveness (last night aside). Bzdelik is going to switch up his defenses, pressure the ball and make you work for points. But if you at least make a concerted effort at the defensive end, there's a decent chance they won't get to sixty. I anticipate they'll be losing a lot of games in the vicinity of 75-55…

Up next: Baylor

Mini-preview: Nebraska Cornhuskers

Is there a weirder team in the conference than Nebraska? Colorado is certainly the worst – as the 45 point loss to Missouri should prove – but Nebraska looks like a high school team. They are playing six guys 20+ minutes a game. Of those six, the tallest is 6'5" Ade Dagunduro – he of the 11 points and nearly four rebounds per game. Behind those six, you have 6'6" freshman Toney McCray – thus far he's averaged just under 18 minutes, 7 points and 4 boards. And finally, you have Chris Balham. Those in the area may remember him from his days at Shawnee Mission West. After moving from Paris with his family, Balham became a decent HS player (with averages of 11 points, 11 boards & 4 blocks) in garnering honorable mention All-State consideration as a senior.

Wow, that is one tiny little team! I suppose that should explain how they were able to lose to the Baltimore-Maryland County Retrievers. And make it all the more hilarious that they recently beat the Missouri Tigers. But really, I like Steve Harley's game – despite completely dominating them beyond belief the last few years, he showed some promise and is a solid college guard. And I'd echo those same sentiments about Dagunduro and Henry. Both are long athletes that can challenge (guard's) shots, can get to the rim and even pull up a little bit. Even Cookie Miller, despite his height disadvantage is a decent little PG that can take care of the ball and dish it out as well. But what makes this team so hilarious to me is that despite having less height than most AAU teams, they can't shoot the ball either. They have exactly one guy – Paul Velander – worth really accounting for from three point range. For the year, Velander is 40/84 for 47.6%. A true marksman, Velander has only attempted 9 two point FGs on the season. Yes, you read that right – he's taken 93 shots, but 84 have been from beyond the arc – so I think we know how to play him. Second is Sek Henry at 40%, but 16/41 doesn't exactly put the fear of God into you.

Despite how it seems, I'm not posting this simply to ridicule Nebraska. Hell, they beat Missouri, who beat current Pac 10 leader Cal, who beat Arizona, who beat our Kansas Jayhawks. So according to the transitive property we just might be in some trouble. In fact, Reid Gettys doesn't think the odds makers will have us favored when we make our trip to Lincoln in two weeks. Then again, that's what makes him Reid Gettys.

Up next: Colorado

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Happy Mullet Wednesday! (plus KSU grades)


In honor of Jodie Meek's unreal 54 point performance last night, we are proud to present to you the very standard, yet always eye-pleasing, Kentucky Waterfall mullet. I can only speculate as to his location at the time of the picture, but rest assured that my imagination is running rampant and as a result, a smile is firmly planted on my face. Happy Mullet Wednesday to all!

From Pat Forde's piece on the Kentucky/Tennessee game last night
Tennessee somehow scrapped to within seven at 71-64 with less than six minutes to play. That's when Gillispie went back to his SLOB (sideline out-of-bounds) and BLOB (baseline out-of-bounds) playbook, which paid dividends all night. He called a play for Meeks, who responded by draining a baseline 3-pointer.
Any chance Bill could call up his old pal, Billy Clyde, and share a few ideas here. I noticed marketable improvement in this area the last few games, but still very little in way of production. I wouldn't mind having one of those Joide Meeks' either. Just a thought…

We currently possess the second longest home-court winning streak in the nation, at 34 games. Notre Dame is at 45. Their next home game is on the 24th against UConn. After that, they have capable visitors in (possibly) Marquette, Louisville & Villanova. This is of no importance whatsoever, obviously, but something to watch.

While we're still talking basketball, Boo Radley, over at Atomic Teeth posted a very good piece on why Mike Anderson is not the right guy for the job at Missouri. As you might imagine, his main argument is the Anderson's "Forty Minutes of heck" style is not suited to win in the Big XII – or basically any time you don't have vastly superior athletes. You'll get no argument from me.

Keeping with Atomic Teeth, Phenomenal Smith also put together a good piece recently. His piece examines the bowl results of not only the Big XII, but the rest of the country as well. Especially appreciated is his ability to look a bit beyond a simple win and loss. Yes, the Pac 10 was 5-0 and proud we are of all of them. But it helps to take a more detailed gander every once in a while.

And finally, we have the Texas Top 125 as compiled by Burnt Orange Beat. After a quick glance, I noticed a few Kansas recruits:

Prinz Kande – 47th
Dexter Linton – 64th
Toben Opurum – 114th
Randall Dent – 121st
Chris Omigie – 122nd

By no means is getting five of the best 125 players in Texas any incredible accomplishment setting us apart as a program for years to come, but it's a step. And when you mix that talent with the JUCO commits we've received and the talent from the rest of the country, it's quite obvious that Mangino and his staff are putting together far and away the best class (on paper) since his arrival in Lawrence.

With the links out of the way, I want to briefly revisit last night’s win. Obviously we addressed the keys this morning. Now, I think it’s time to take a look at the grades. But before we do, I just want to point out one quick thing that caught my attention last night, but has no relevant place in this post… Right before the half, with Sherron on the bench, Ron Anderson caught the ball in the post, took several awkward dribbles with his back to the basket before putting up a hideous shot attempt that actually found it’s way through the net. Of course I wish he’d missed the shot, but that’s not what bothered me – what I couldn’t stomach to watch was how none of the guards came and stole the ball away from him. In the amount of time he was dribbling, Russell would have turned it into an easy layup at the other end and Mario just might have stolen it twice. The learning curve is a frustrating thing to watch sometimes, but that was one of those moments that I almost couldn’t bear to watch. What might have been if Mario and Darrell had opted for another year on the Oread…

Sherron Collins: A-. Foul problems (though one was a truly horrendous call), four turnovers, and a couple defensive lapses detract from on otherwise great performance. He was extremely efficient in getting 24 points on only 11 shots, while also collecting 5 boards and dishing out 4 assists.

Cole Aldrich: B+. Hard to get too upset when he only misses one shot and scores 15 points. But the six shots weren’t nearly enough (not necessarily his fault), especially in a game he should have dominated. I also would have expected more than 8 rebounds from him; though he did lose some minutes to some second half foul trouble (after not picking up a single one in the first). Again though, took care of the ball, was very efficient scoring and altered several shots, blocking two – hard to complain, but not his best game.

Tyshawn Taylor: A-. Was good on defense and great on offense, especially in the way he let the game come to him and took what the defense gave him. Like those already listed, he was very efficient in his scoring, racking up 20 points on only 8 shots. Factor in his 4 boards, three assists, 2 steals and block and that may have been his best all around game. Very Chalmers-like box score.

Brady Morningstar: B-. Didn’t look like himself all night offensively, but when it came down to it he hit the biggest shot of the night and then added a second triple a few minutes later. Generally played good defense as he’s become known to do, but didn’t collect a single rebound – out of position or not, that can’t happen from our starting wing. We’ll take 3 assists to 0 turnovers every time out though.

Mario Little: B. Still kind of guessing with him as the 13 minutes he played last night were a season high so we don’t know much yet. I think last night gave us an idea though as we saw some stuff from him offensively that we haven’t seen from anyone else on the roster. Added three boards and a block to his 8 points – hopefully a sign of good things to come.

Tyrel Reed: C+. I thought his defense, especially in the first half, was better than we’ve come to expect. But we need him to stretch the defense when he’s in and he just didn’t do much of that last night. Missed both threes, had 2 layups and was just 2-4 from the line for 6 total points. Great steal and finish to make it 18-0 early on, but we need more out of him.

Marcus Morris: B-. 7 boards and 2 steals in only 15 minutes is fantastic. But we need to be getting more than 3 points and 15 minutes out of him. He also needs to learn how to shoot free throws. Since he actually wasn’t in foul trouble, I’m guessing Bill was pretty displeased with his practice of late – also his defense wasn’t exactly stout, though not terrible either.

Markieff Morris: B-. I’m starting to like what he gives us, sans the fouls. He’s still not boxing out, but did come up with 5 boards to go along with 5 points, 1 block and assist. If we can get him to just move his feet and quit using his hands on defense, I think he fits in well at the four with his passing ability.

Overall, it was a nice win. Pretty much played out exactly as I had it scripted. I was actually thinking low eighties to mid sixties, but figured we’d start on a run, they’d claw their way back in it and we’d step up and close them out. I wish we wouldn’t let the middle part of that formula occur, but it’s what tends to happen and the Wildcats play hard every time out (see: offensive rebounding) so I knew they wouldn’t lay down. But you don’t apologize for conference wins, especially not 16 point wins in which you control 80% of the game. Like I said this morning, now we just need to figure out how to take this team with us on the road. I’m currently watching our weekend opponent trail the Leo Lyonsless Missouri Tigers by a score of 37-17 with a few minutes left in the first. Needles to say, they don’t look great. Probably time to switch over to Baylor/A&M; or Top Chef, for that matter...

37 for 39

Well, that makes 37 out of 39 over the Aggies from the Sunflower State. It was a good win for the Hawks and hopefully a good sign of things to come for Tyshawn - I didn't much care for his freshman wall, though we all knew he'd have to hit it at some point.

Keys to the game from the preview...

Fast start
There is no better way to take the wind out of a lesser team's sails than to bury them early. If we got out of the gates fired up (we will) and we use it to build an early double-digit lead, we'll put the pressure on them to respond. And while they may be able to answer the bell, they haven't exactly dazzled on the road (see: losing at 6-10 Oregon). Much like us, they struggle when out of their comfort zone and they don't have the skill set or athleticism to play equalizer. However, they just played Oklahoma close – so if we let them hang around and build confidence, the pressure shifts over to our side in a very big, bad way.

I'd say we nailed this one with that whole 18-0 thing over the first few minutes. Hell, it was 9-0 before they even attempted a shot. It's a shame we let them bring it back so close, but a credit to them for being aggressive and getting to the line to put the pressure on.

Tempo
K-State isn't necessarily a plodding, slog it out kind of team. But given the location of the game, a fast pace should play to our favor. They don't have the athletes or the skill set to keep up if we're pressuring them and converting easy points in transition. Our half court offense certainly has it's moments, but I like us in transition a whole lot more. And just as importantly, I like our pressure defense much more than when we're set in a half court. Hell, this is what we did against Tennessee – who had a better athlete at nearly every position – and we still kept them at arms length throughout.

Another bullseye. We scored a very easy 87 and a big reason was our aggressive tempo leading to layups or kickouts for open looks. We shot the ball great last night, but I'd contend that any time we get that many good looks we'll shoot it that way or better. Aside from some truly horrific defense to start the second half, I have no complaints.

Control the boards
As they were last year, the Wildcats are exceptional at cleaning up on the offensive glass. They have very few skilled inside players, but they have just enough athleticism and hustle to get easy buckets for themselves. If this is limited, they'll struggle. Unfortunately, this is also something we struggle at limiting. We've allowed far too many offensive boards against teams not as adept at getting them and it has hurt us badly. Cole will hold up his end, but we need the Morris' best effort and we'll really need Brady, Mario 7 Travis to keep a body on Samuels and Sutton.

Well, two out of three ain't bad. They out-boarded us 37 to 34, which is fine, especially considering Cole was so limited the second half. More frustrating was the disparity on the offensive end - which they won 16-7. A tip of the cap to them for that one, but we need to block out better. A missed shot was their best offense, and that shouldn't happen.

And finally, from the comments we had GingerBalls' concern about how we'd attack the zone. They didn't play a ton of it per se, but it was used and even in their man they liked to sag down on Cole (only 6 shots) allowing for some very big lanes to the hole. And as you know, Sherron and Tyshawn took advantage, and as a result, we had a ton of easy shots that we mostly converted.

There may be a bit more to come on this later, but for now just be happy with a solid win. The game really couldn't have gone much more to script and now we just need to figure out how to take this act on the road. I can't think of a better place to start than Boulder.

Rock Chalk!