Oklahoma React

There’s no way to be happy about today. But there is a silver lining. And it’s thanks to the Texas Longhorns. With Methzou now dropping a second conference game and looking horribly porous in the process, the Jayhawks have a very real chance to represent the north in Arrowhead. Even if they aren’t able to handle Tech (still confident though) or Texas (not so much), as long as they take care of business against KSU (bagged) and in Lincoln (eh), it will all come down to Arrowhead. Again. Good times. But I don’t think I’m going out on a limb when I say that the South has re-claimed the conference. It was fun while it lasted.

The outcome was: expected, but still disappointing. As you know, I pretty much expected a 10-14 point loss, so the final margin is nothing shocking. The disappointment stems from the revolving door that stood in as the defense today. 674 yards? Really?!? Some more disappointment comes from the offense converting exactly zero third downs until their last drive of the game. That, along with badly losing the turnover battle is pretty much the exact opposite formula to win a game on the road in which you’re a 20 point underdog. But hey, at least they weren’t run off the field like some teams.

The offensive MVP was: Dezmon Briscoe. I’ve been on his bandwagon since early last year, but wow. Aside from that one drive in the second half (to make it 31-24), he was the offense today. 12 catches for 269 yards and that’s taking away two other great catches he made (the one where he was down and Holmes wrestled the ball away and it was somehow called an INT & also when he got a foot down in bounds with the ball and then bobbled on his way down once out of bounds). Texas brutalized the linebackers (I’m still not sure why we didn’t, though Nic Harris was a big reason), but Dez brutalized their secondary. By himself. Just an incredible performance in a lost cause. [Ed. note: There will be no player of the game poll this week as I've made the executive decision that Dez Briscoe is the unanimous winner.]

Defensive MVP was: Kickoff unit. They looked much better and since no one really did anything else to contain the offense, they are the clear winner here.

Offensive LVP was: Dexton Fields. Watching Shipley and Cosby run unabated through the middle of the OU defense last week, I figured Dex and Kerry would have great days. Kerry was able to get free for 4 catches (one of them incredible), but he’s clearly still hurt. In his absence, we should have seen a lot more from Dexton. Todd has to get him the ball. And we’ve got to run plays to give him a chance. But we’ve got to have more from the lone senior out there and leading returning receiver two years running (catchwise).

Defensive LVP was: Kendrick Harper. But really, take your pick. I knew Kendrick would get abused, but I had no idea it would be that bad. It doesn’t help when the strength of your defense, the linebackers, don’t seem to even know where they’re supposed to be half the time. Despite the lack of pressure and the running yards allowed, I actually thought the d-line played decent. But everyone else was atrocious.

The running game was: a nice surprise. I didn’t expect them to have much success, but as the game went on, I couldn’t figure out why they weren’t running more, especially outside. Jake had maybe the best statistical game of his career with 12 carries for 103 yards and a TD. As a team they picked up 4.5 per carry even with all Todd’s sacks factored in. With as gassed as the defense looked the whole second half, I honestly don’t think it would have been a terrible idea to just run three straight times and if you go three and out, so be it. At least you burned some clock. I really think they missed the boat on this one.

The pass rush was: non-existent. Which was to be expected. Sure, Osackpo was able to pressure Bradford, but few others are able. So I wasn’t counting on much here. They flushed him out a few times, mostly early, which was nice but this was a decided mismatch going in and it was verified throughout.

The special teams: looked pretty good. There was nothing flashy, though Jocques had a very nice return. But more importantly, they typically had at least a decent return and they didn’t give up anything big on the other end. You’d like to get more, especially when you’re trying to steal one you shouldn’t, but you can’t expect it. They certainly weren’t a detriment and that’s usually good enough.

Some random thoughts: I like them trying to get Jocques involved, but I don’t understand why they won’t run him outside like they do Jake. That guy is plenty capable and we need to get him the ball more…Kerry being hurt really killed this offense (see: third down conversions)…thank you Dezmon Briscoe…Joe Mortensen, where have you gone?...when you have a drive that goes 80 yards on: shovel pass, run, run, run, run, run and score a touchdown, why then do you go away from the run?...What is it about OU that brings out awful officiating? It wouldn’t have been the difference, but that was just awful from beginning to end and replay really has ruined officiating as they never feel accountable anymore…Is our LT Jeff Spikes or Ben Leuken? This is something that needs to get figured out during practice, not in the middle of games in Norman…I’m doing a lot of bitching, but really, as long as they use this to shore up some weaknesses, things are still fine and I’m just being a typical spoiled fan. This was just a case of going up against a better team; as bad as the defense played, they did force 5 punts, a TOD and 2 missed FGs. Unfortunately, the other seven drives resulted in 6 TDs and a FG. Just as bad, the offense only held the ball longer than three minutes once and it ended in a goal line interception. And after all that, they were still in the game. Then they punted on five straight possessions and that was that.

Texas Tech fear factor is: 8 out of 10. Baseline of 6. (+2) for this. (-1) because the Tech defense will also be “showing up.” (+1) for Kendrick Harper. (+1) for Michael Crabtree being a hybrid Dezmon Briscoe and Kerry Meier. (-1) for this beautiful place.

Heading into next week I feel: anxious. Watching Sam Bradford carve up the secondary today was pretty terrifying and I can’t even imagine the excitement in the Texas Tech film room. And (spoiler alert!) they’re going to have themselves a fun little Saturday. The key will be limiting that fun as much as possible (we usually win the TO battle in Memorial). The other (possibly bigger) key will be having even more fun when we have the ball. Even with the line getting assaulted most of the day, they still put up 31 points and 491 yards. They won’t be under that kind of pressure next Saturday and if watching A&M carve them up the entire first half was any indication, there’s no reason Todd can’t have himself a career day. On that note, I’m going to go jump out of a plane from 10,000 feet and try to forget that our defense allowed 7 yards per play. On 97 plays! Rock Chalk.

Big XII Picks: Week 3

Another big week in the best conference in the country. To get a gauge on how loaded the league is this year, look no further than the #1 spot in the land. Last week, the holder of said spot lost and while an upset, no one was all that surprised. This week, the holder of said spot (while favored to win) could easily lose and again, no one would be all that surprised. Such is life in the Big XII conference this year. On the season, we're 8-4 TGS and 7-5 ATS. That won't get it done.

Before we move to the picks, I should let you know that this week's Rock Chalk Roundtable has been posted over at Rock Chalk Talk. Check it out.

Game of the Week

Methzou @ Texas (-4)
Since I first started looking at the schedule this year, I circled this game as the one the Tigers would absolutely not win. I don't even know why. Because until Orakpo turned into Julius Peppers, no one really knew how Texas could defend the pass with their young secondary. And honestly, they still don't defend it incredibly well (387 and 5 for Bradford), but they shut down the running game completely (48 total for OU). In today's Big XII as long as you have an offense to go along with it, shutting down one of the two is usually good enough to win.

Meanwhile, the Tigers' defense has long been suspect and nothing changed in their loss last week. Despite holding OSU well below their season averages, it was pretty apparent that they weren't doing anything to stop them. Hunter rarely had much trouble picking up yards (6.8 per) and obviously that opened things up for Robinson on any hint of a play action. The Methzou defense has an NFL player at every level, but as a whole they just aren't that good. Colt McCoy should have fun. But Booger might too. Honestly, I find myself leaning toward taking the upset here until I remember that Orakpo will be lined up against Elvis Fisher. Then I remember how good Chase is at throwing on the run. Then I take Texas to win comfortably. All they have to do is get a second half lead (H/T: TG).(Bonus: Great video courtesy of The Wiz of Odds)
Texas 44 Methzou 34.

Baylor (+17) @ Oklahoma State
I've never trusted Okie State. And I still don't. But I've never felt better about their chances after finding out that Mike Gundy doesn't even watch a defensive snap. There's no denying that he's got a great offensive mind. Defense, not so much. But even with that newfound hope, if this game were in Waco I'd take the Bears to pull the upset. In Stillwater, I'll say Robert Griffin gives them trouble, but not nearly enough for the win. I've watched Baylor play enough "defense" against Wake Forest to know that Gundy is so excited for this one that he forgot to tan on Tuesday.
OSU 45 Baylor 30

KSU (+3.5) @ Colorado
There seems to be a renewed faith in the Wildcats this week after they handled the Aggies in College Station. Although can you really handle an opponent that outgains you by 95 yards? Especially when that opponent's yard total is 544 yards when they could only muster 290 on Army (236 @ New Mexico? 303 v. Ark. State?)? J-Free can absolutely carve up defenses that don't belong in college football. And he's not terribly awful against mediocre ones either, at least when he's not turning the ball over. But this defense has now given up 500+ yards in four straight games and in that time they only faced one legitimate opponent. Colorado is bad. KSU is worse.
CU 31 KSU 28

Nebraska @ Iowa State (+8)
Joe Ganz will look back on that one for a while. Well maybe not, since he throws one every other game too. But it's usually not in overtime with a chance to beat a top 10 team when the defense would have actually had to make more of a play to not catch the ball. But on the other hand, the Bugeaters did an incredible job of holding onto the ball even without establishing much of a running game. That is officially their best defense. And that's progress. ISU, meanwhile, went on the road and did exactly what it is they do on the road; nothing. This time they're back in Ames. I like the Huskers to escape with a win but anything more than a TD seems a bit much.
Nebraska 31 ISU 27

Texas Tech (-21) @ Texas A&M
It sure seems like Tech should cover this easily. But it seemed like they would last week also. But considering what they did to KSU and what the Wildcats did to A&M, I have to lean Tech on this one. Personally, I'm hoping they use up as much of their offense as possible before next week.
Tech 55 A&M 21

Kansas (+20) @ Oklahoma
I'd be lying if I told you that watching TCU's defense manhandle the Mormons last night didn't concern me. Sure, they had some success against OU: held them to 25 yards rushing, sacked Bradford a couple times, and after falling behind 21-3, only allowed two TDs, both on 50+ yard passes to Manny Johnson. But Sammie still went over 400 and that 35 was put up pretty easily. And TCU definitely has a better defense than the Jayhawks. Fortunately, Kansas has a much better offense. Unfortunately, that will only go so far in keeping OU off the scoreboard.

A few keys to the game…

The first quarter: This has obviously been an issue for the Jayhawks lately. The ISU struggles were well chronicled, but despite the lack of attention, it was more of the same against Colorado. Fortunately, the defense was awake and they had a home crowd behind them. The offense still struggled out of the gates, though, and that can't happen this week. You may have heard a little something about OU's first quarter dominance (110-6). Against Texas that's the only quarter they won. That hasn't been the case in every game obviously, but it does point to the fact that they really like to jump on teams early, especially at home. If Kansas can keep things close through 15 minutes (or even lead), the dynamic of this game will definitely change.

The big play: I'm not saying Sam Bradford can't methodically move the ball down the field all game, because I think he can. But that's definitely not what the Sooners want to do. They love the big play. And they're very good at making it happen. Their top 4 receivers have all scored from over 42 yards out (Manny Johnson's done it 4 times, twice more from over 30). Playing soft coverage is frustrating as hell against someone like Booger who loves to dink and dunk. But against this offense, it may be the perfect fit, because if they start scoring easily and getting the crowd going, it could get ugly. Kendrick Harper, you've been warned.

Converting: I don't want to limit this to the red zone, because third downs will be just as important. The Hawks have to find a way to give themselves a third and short and then convert time and again. The OU defense wore down horribly against Texas (see: Ogbannaya's 62 yard run) and they can do so again if KU can keep them on the field. Just as, if not more importantly, the Hawks need to convert any and all scoring chances into TDs. OU won't be settling for FGs and neither can we. Especially if we're not going to make them, Branstetter.

Something extra: The common theme with any upset is the underdog being able to do something they weren't expected to. Whether it be: running the ball well, flustering Bradford all game, coming up with a defensive or special teams touchdown, convincing Bob that it's January, they need something. I don't care what it is or how it comes to be, but simply lining up and playing it out won't get it done. They'll score too much. And we won't score enough. And unfortunately, that's how I see it playing out. I hope I'm wrong.

OU 41 KU 31

Last week: 2-4 TGS, 3-3 ATS
Season: 8-4 TGS, 7-5 ATS

Happy Thursday

That seems about right (H/T: Orson).

Your Wednesday Links

Congrats to Jake Sharp and Todd Reesing for earning co-KJ-IBT MVP honors for the Colorado game. We've had more votes in many of our polls, but we'd never had quite the dissent we had in this one with all six nominees receiving multiple votes. For a variety of reasons, I'm a very strong advocate of this and hopeful that it continues. That said, I voted for Hot Toddy.

**UPDATE** Land Thieves has posted our Q&A.

We have a few links of interest for you today. The first one is titled "If the AP Poll's top 5 Coaches Were on Entourage." Well done, sir. And is it just me, or is this season of Entourage MUCH better than last year?

Next, from our friends at Barking Carnival, Scipio Tex gives his thoughts on how Texas can beat Methzou. First off, it's great analysis. But among many highlights, this one stood out…

There’s a small internet meme I’d like to try to eviscerate that Chase Daniel will fold when the going gets tough and his competitive fire is quenched and replaced with sulky bitchiness when he meets a defense that can’t be immediately had. In short, that he is Graham Harrell. I’m not completely sure I buy it. And I say that with full awareness that I am defending a guy who has sported a line beard, a skull cap, and a faux hawk. That intensity of douche could clean out Shirley Hemphill’s vagina with an eye dropper. I admit this.

Countering Scipio, Henry James gives his prescription for what Methzouri needs to do to win. This also won't hurt their cause. But shit, if they can't win this and fall to 1-2 in the league, they could win out until Arrowhead while KU could go 2-3 and as long as KU wins November 29th, they would represent the north there a week later. Not that I want to get ahead of myself or anything.

Spending a lot of time on felines today, but Panjandrum has an entertaining piece up over at BOTC. Pretty funny stuff. Also very gratifying that KSU fans feel like their athletic programs are so beneath KU's that they are now pulling out the "cheaters" card. I won't refute it, because (to an extent) it happened. But to waste your time claiming that KU is winning because a few JUCO guys that never saw the field (obviously wouldn't be the case on their team) had a little help getting in reeks of stupidity and jealousy. Wouldn't have expected that out of them. Simply shocking!

How can this be? Neither USF nor Pitt are in the rankings and yet here sits Kansas just a week after he called out his fellow AP voters for doing the same.

And I know it's football season, but I came across this little piece on the Cavs last night and I had to pass it along. It's an Insider piece, so I've copied the relevant info for you…

5. Darnell Jackson's toughness
He's just a rookie, but after four years at Kansas, Jackson and James are almost the same age. He's also a former high school football star. All of it shows. Though respectful, he hasn't backed down once to the veterans even when Wallace started hitting him with elbows in practice to test him or he was required to put on diapers in the locker room as a hazing ritual.
Coach Mike Brown has raved about him day after day in practice and called him one of the best screen setters he's ever coached. He's an undersized power forward at 6-foot-8 and he likely won't see much playing time early on, but there is no questioning the impression he's leaving. Every year there is a second-round pick who surprises and the Cavs are hopeful they've found a blue-collar banger, which they backed up by giving Jackson a three-year contract.

If you don't respect the hell out of Darnell Jackson, you and I probably wouldn't get along.

On that note, in a tribute to his home state and this Saturday's opponent, we would like to wish you a very HAPPY MULLET WEDNESDAY! Yes, that's the Boz. And yes, Booger is extremely jealous, though he would clearly not understand the bandana in place of a skull cap. Here he is from another angle.

Q&A Time: Oklahoma

Our Q&A this week was coordinated with the Head Thief over at the great Oklahoma blog Land Thieves. We attempted to bring in John Shinn (douchebag) of The Norman Transcript, but he apparently had no interest. So a big thanks to the Head Thief for both his time and his answers. He also asked me to opine on Kansas a bit over there, so I'll update you when it's posted as I was a little slow getting answers back to him.
**NOW POSTED**

1. So we might as well address the elephant in the room... is Sooner Nation still pretty upset that your Sooners got caught looking ahead to their battle with the reigning Orange Bowl champions?

"Of course we're upset. Our hand signal is an upside down longhorn. We harbor resentment about losses for years. Think Glenn Close in Fatal Attraction, direct that resentment toward an official, coach or player (generally official or coach), and that's a Sooner fan."

2. Seriously though, how is everyone holding up? To me, even worse than losing to UT (great team as they are) would be that the blueprint for taking OU down has been laid out; now it's just up to whether or not teams have the personnel and discipline to execute.

"There's a several points of despair from last week's game...a) why can't we find a kicker that can kick the ball somewhat consistentlly into the end zone; b) how can we have such great student-athletes yet not be able to cover a kickoff; c) we're doomed, Ryan Reynolds is injured; d) how could a second stringer be that unprepared for the ball game; e) TCU and UT both showed how to stop the Sooners; and most of all; f) holy crap, Oklahoma State might really be good this year. In spite of the aforementioned points, we're optimistic Mizzou and Texas Tech will beat the Horns and give us a shot at the Big 12 title again."
[Ed. note: What, no mention of Kansas taking them down?]

3. Speaking of that blueprint, the loss of a running game has been the most surprising issue to me. I'm inclined to think it has a lot to do with the no-huddle. Would you agree? And on that note, what do you think of the new offense?

"I believe our lack of a running game relates to two things: a) overrated offensive line; b) health of DeMarco Murray. I think it's more a than b. When we put Chris Brown or Mossis Madu in there, they are not exactly lighting it up either. You can't really say, wow, "he missed that hole" if you look at our TCU-Baylor-Texas games. Might the no-huddle factor in there somewhere? Perhaps. Maybe the more versatile personnel groupings don't lend themselves to running effectively. For example, based upon the blocking I didn't see from our TE Jermaine Gresham on the fake punt, I don't think he's grading out well for moving people out of the way."

4. Since the passing game has been nearly flawless, we'll move to defense. The front four is the strength. But how would you rank the other units?

"Linebackers - I would give them a B for the season and a C for the Texas game. Ryan Reynolds was our sole returning starter here, and Chris Clayton and Travis Lewis have played well on the outside. Ryan was playing well during the year and okay during Texas (pass coverage not his strength anyway) before the injury. On to the DBs. Aside from one deep ball, I thought the corners played well on Saturday. Dom Franks didn't get many balls thrown his way. Brian Jackson was stuck with covering Quan Cosby, and he did most of his damage in the middle of the field. Nic Harris and Lendy Holmes are playing well overall as well."

5. Obviously the Ryan Reynolds loss is enormous as he was not only the best linebacker but the leader of the defense? There was a noticeable increase in production on Texas' part after he went out; would you say this is a sign of things to come or will the defense be ok without him?

"Ryan's injury is a huge loss, but I'm a big believer in the coaching staff and I'll delusionally - apparently that's not even a word, but I'm going with it - believe they'll have someone ready to play MLB by Saturday. With so many spread teams and quality QBs in the conference, you've got to consider playing a nickle back all the time anyway. Perhaps they'll try that Saturday. I was pretty frustrated that even though the 92,000 people at the Cotton Bowl knew the ball was going to Shipley over the middle, we still couldn't stop it. Maybe he had some sort of invisible force field up or something. I think the biggest concern on the D is the loss of leadership. Great teams have leaders and playmakers that step up and make that pontiac game changing play that keeps you from losing. We just couldn't come up with a stop on Saturday when we needed it."

6. Switching gears, how do Sooner fans feel about KU? Are they worried at all? Did last week's loss cause you to worry more or less about this game?

"Sooner fans are still pretty upset that Danny and the Miracles beat us in 1988. Some Sooner fans haven't realized the Jayhawks are good at football yet. Presently company excluded, of course. In what little research I've done on the Jayhawks this year, I've found that they suck at kick returns. So our weaknesses match up well. Conversely, it doesn't look like we'll be running the ball well this week either. Seriously, I think with as good a team as Kansas is, and with the loss of our defensive leader, we're definitely concerned."

7. We haven't spent a whole lot of time in Norman...for those of us considering the trip down where would you recommend we check out? And yes, we'll be looking for the most fun places to get as drunk as possible.

"I'm not the best resource for local watering holes, but here's a couple: O'Connells is legendary in Norman. The old location on the SE corner of the stadium at Lindsey and Jenkins is still there. The new location on campus corner (northeast side of campus) is also available. There are several places to imbibe yourself in the Campus Corner section. Brothers Pizza is a good one as well. Off campus, my favorite burger place in town is Goldie's Hamburgers. It's on the east side of town. The Mont, at Boyd and Classen has good food and drinks, at least it did when I was in school. There's a lot of tents and vendors and such on the north side of the stadium if you get to the game early. A couple of places even had a big screen up last year, so weather permitting, you can eat a burger, drink some beer and watch the early games there on the north side of campus."

8. Finish this sentence. Oklahoma will win if...

"Oklahoma will win if...we can find a way to defend the middle of the field."

9. And finally, what's your score prediction?

"I'm pretty surprised at the 18 point spread I saw in the paper today. I'd probably say 42-28, Sooners."
[Ed. note: spread is now at 19.5]

p.s. Our Mangino question somehow didn't make it into the e-mail we sent him (but recently was re-sent), so hopefully we'll get his answer back on that and get it posted then. **UPDATE** The response is in. I don't remember the exact wording of my question, but really I just wanted him to discuss how OU fans feel about The Big Man. Here's what he had to say...

"There are mixed emotions about Mangino. He was our OC for our national champsionship run, but many believe that Heupel was the coach on the field that got it all done...from the casual observer it looked like a lot of audibles when Josh was our QB, and it tended to work out pretty well for the Sooners. To Mangino's credit, some one was preparing them for all those options so that the line checks were successful. To the passionate fan at OU, Mangino fell out of favor a bit after the loss to Oklahoma State in 2001. I guess in a nutshell, when he had an oustanding college QB, he was an outstanding offensive coordinator. When he had an average QB (Hybl), the was an average offensive coordinator. Funny how that works out.

Personally, I thought he would be a decent head coach, and have been impressed that he got it turned around at Kansas. The post-Glen Mason years didn't work out well for the Jayhawks."

Five Reasons Kansas Could Win

As you no doubt noticed in yesterday's post, there is reason to believe Kansas could lose this game. But for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. That is what you get today.

1. Pass coverage: Not KU's; theirs still remains very much a concern. But OU is very much in the same boat, they're just able to hide it better at times. We came into the year thinking the OU back seven was suspect. It took 6 games for the prediction to show up, but it did so in a very big way.
Will it help? Absolutely. Unlike Kansas, the Sooners can generate a pass rush to hide their secondary at times. But what they can't do is hide their linebackers. You won't find many groups better at stuffing the run, but good at pass coverage they are not. If Shipley and Cosby were any indication, both Fields and Meier (if healthy) should be a match-up nightmare for the Sooners. Now we just need to give Todd some space to get them the ball.

2. Clock management: As Texas and TCU have shown, OU's running game is not working very well. Shocking as it seems to me, their gigantic linemen aren't generating much of a push and have basically just become a stationary wall of pass blockers (perhaps you should consider your personnel before you go to a no-huddle Stoopsie). Despite having a struggling running game of their own, Kansas is actually 14th nationally in TOP. OU is 71st.
Will it help? It might not even happen, but if it does, it certainly can't hurt. I think we all know that OU is going to put up some points Saturday. I don't have a clue how KU can defend Gresham. And between Iglesias and Manny Johnson, someone is bound to have a big day. And that's all assuming their running backs stay bottled up (no easy task, despite their recent struggles). So obviously the best defense here is to keep this offense off the field. If Todd can pick them apart with short routes and they can establish a semblance of a running game, they've got a chance to keep things close.

3. Special teams: Rarely does an upset take place where the underdog doesn't get some points from either the defense or the special teams. Assuming Sammie B takes care of the ball, KU is going to need to get something out of their return games. Fortunately, Oklahoma is 109th nationally allowing over 25 yards per KO return with 2 TDs sprinkled in.
Will it help? Unfortunately, KU is currently last in the nation in KO return yardage. But Marcus Herford wasn't a preseason All-American for nothing after averaging over 25 yards each of the last two seasons. Mangino says there will be some major changes made here in personnel and possible schematically. If they can find something and catch the Sooners off guard to steal some momentum, you can't underestimate the effect that could have (I should note that I consider Shipley's return the single biggest play of that game).

4. Todd Reesing: I told you he was staying in this spot until proven otherwise. And he did absolutely nothing last week to lose his place here. I don't think there's any denying that ball security was one of the main reasons Kansas started last season 11-0 and did not lose a game on the road. The main catalyst to that was Todd, who, after KSU, did not turn it over on trips to Boulder, College Station and Stillwater.
Will it help? If it doesn't, the Hawks are in some serious trouble. In order to stay in this game, they're going to need Todd to not only protect the ball at all costs, but also find a way to make plays and keep up with the high scoring OU offense. No easy task. And he's going to need a lot of help to get it done. But especially against a team with a pass rush, there's no one I'd rather have back there than Hot Toddy.

5. "Nobody believed in us:" You can't really say the Hawks are playing with house money here, because for the time being they control their own destiny with how far they go this season. But given that they opened as 18 point dogs, it's pretty safe to say that not too many people outside of their locker room think they're on their way to 6-1.
Will it help? Of course. If OU has any hope of playing for the league or national championship they can't afford to lose again, let alone within the confines of their own stadium. So every bit of the pressure is on them to come out and make a statement. For a whole lot of reasons this does not bode well for KU. But on the other hand, they're very comfortable in the underdog role and if they can keep it close, OU will definitely start to feel some added anxiety.

A long story short, there are some definite advantages here and some weaknesses that KU can exploit. Unfortunately, I just don't see how either the OL or DL can hold up an entire four quarters against the Sooners. The execution from quarterback and personnel at WR are there to do exactly what Texas did in the passing game. Unfortunately, Texas also dominated in the run game and both their OL and DL completely wore down OU's units. Kansas will not have these advantages, so they'll need to come up with some extra points somewhere (something Texas also did) in order to keep things close. We've yet to see the Hawks play a great game from beginning to end. Saturday would be a good time to start.

Five Reasons Kansas Could Lose

A quick link for you. I won't fault him too badly, because even he doesn't seem to really believe this logic. But to even suggest the possibility that this Wildcat team could win the north deserves a very hearty laugh. They've currently faced one legitimate team and in their own stadium, they lost that game by 30 points. They've also still got OU and a trip to Columbia on tap. Even if they don't want to admit that there are other losses on the docket, they'd have to concede those two meaning that by virtue of a tie-breaker; Methzou would have to go 4-4 in the league for the Wildcats to represent the north in Arrowhead.

Speaking of the Tigers, their butt chinned quarterback is hoping that Colt throws for 500 yards and 5 TDs in a tie game this week. Interesting, to say the least.

Now, hard as it may be to find five reasons the Jayhawks can lose this game, we're going to try. We told you we'd adhere to this routine and hell if we're going to lie to our beloved reader(s). Our word is our bond.

1. Sam Bradford: Question the OU defense, special teams or running game all you want. But don’t question Sam Bradford. Facing the high pressure front seven from Texas, Bradford threw for 387 yards (72%) and 5 TDs. There were a couple picks in there as well, though one was one the last play of the game.
Will it hurt us? Yep. There’s no sense expecting anything but his best. He’s yet to have a bad game in Norman and Kansas’ secondary is pretty susceptible to a good passing attack. The lack of a running game killed them against a team with pass rushing athletes like Texas; that won’t be the case this week.

2. Location: The Sooners currently possess the nation’s longest home winning streak at 20 games, dating all the way back to opening weekend 2005 when they were shocked by TCU. Long story short, they don’t lose a lot in Norman.
Will it hurt us? Of course. This doesn’t mean KU can’t win this game, but it certainly doesn’t help their chances. Nearly every team in college football is better in front of their fans (aside from UGA) and Oklahoma is by no means an exception. There’s something about 85,000 overall clad land thieves that gets Bob Stoops’ team going, and with their talent that usually leads to a W.

3. Pass rush: Currently, OU sits in a tie for 3rd nationally with 3.5 sacks per game. Among other things, one of the biggest reasons OU was able to dominate Methzou last year was the pressure they put on Chase with their front seven. The linebackers may have taken a step down (especially with Reynolds out), but their front four are still up to snuff.
Will it hurt us? We’ll see. OU, MU and Tech will always deny that their offenses scoring quickly have adverse affects on their defenses. I, for one, disagree. And from everything I’ve heard from the Texas game, this played a big part late in the game. If KU is able to sustain some drives and keep it close, this could neutralize their pass rush late in the game. Whether that will be enough to win, as it was for UT on Saturday, remains to be seen.

4. Saturday’s loss: Correct me if I’m wrong, but the only time I remember OU losing two straight games is when they were mysteriously hammered by KSU and followed that up by wrongly being placed in the MNC, only to lose to Nick Saban’s LSU Tigers. That was over 4.5 years ago.
Will it hurt us? Well since they don’t lose a whole lot, we’re not working with a very big sample size here. But since their league and national title hopes were just derailed for the time being by their most hated rival, it’s reasonable to assume they’ll come out focused and pissed. Then again, especially with the way Texas came back, at least no one on Kansas will make the mistake of thinking they’re invincible.

5. They’re just better: Simple as it is, I’ve used it on Kansas’ end both games and each time it has proved to be the most relevant reason cited. KU does a lot of things well. Actually, pass rush aside, they do about everything as well as Oklahoma. But optimistically, they have maybe 6-8 NFL caliber players on their whole team. Oklahoma sends at least that many every year.
Will it hurt us? Most definitely. Like we say every time in this space, the better players or even the better team don’t always win. But they can certainly overcome a whole lot more mistakes. You could reasonably argue that Oklahoma has a better player at every position on the field. In order for Kansas to win this game, they will have to overcome that; no easy task.